Always Bet Like You Have A Pair

Lackluster Poker Results Lately

2011-12-22T19:17:00.000-08:00

Mostly NL25, and it took me 2-3 months to play that many hands.

Although this isn't outside the realm of variance, I think the site is mostly to blame. There isn't much new player traffic on Merge, and the site seems very reg-filled to me. I think the regs are slowly eating each other alive instead of feasting on the steady stream of new players (that Stars still has) that we all took for granted.

So now, I'm playing on the lowest bankroll I've played since I started online 8 years ago, and playing recreationally.

As you could probably tell from my pace of updating this blog, I don't post much because I don't play much.

But I still like blogging. I'll probably post more about non-poker stuff in the future.

My Birthday, Quitting Smoking For Good

2011-12-12T14:34:00.000-08:00

What's up blog readers.

I turned 27 yesterday. That makes me a smoker of 8 years, so today I quit. Got back in the gym today, for the first time in a long time, and jogged for a pathetic 7 minutes. We'll be hitting the gym more in the future and getting those times on the treadmill up, but I gotta start somewhere with these leather-lungs.

Poker is meh, I'll post about that later.

In the meantime, hope everybody is healthy and living well. I'm going to try to be, too.

Blink and 3 more months go by

2011-10-11T22:57:00.000-07:00

What's up blog readers, time to catch up.

I'm currently unemployed again. I got my job back at the restaurant I was working at, but then they just up and decided to close last week. Their lease on the space was up for renewal, and they couldn't come to an agreement, so they closed and laid everybody off. It was a surprise to everyone, after getting through the dog-days dead time of summer it was just starting to pick back up again.

I have two good prospects for work, one is at another restaurant, and the one I'm hoping for is back in the real estate sector, as an apartment leasing consultant. I'll find out next week, I'll be sure to keep you guys updated.

Poker-wise, I've been playing maybe 20-30k hands per month on Merge. I ran my initial $200 deposit up to a $1,500 cashout, which I received in 3 weeks. So if the DOJ shuts down Merge, oh well... it was house money anyways. Online poker right now is pretty much unlivable with the state of the games today, but I find I enjoy the competition more playing fewer hands per month. I say that with slight frustration, because I've been breaking even and tilting lately. So it goes.

The changes to the poker economy post-Black Friday have had me re-evaluating the reasons I play this game, and I've come to an accommodation with the reality of the landscape.

Fantasy Football-wise, I'm still simply the greatest there ever was at that game. In my important money league, I have the best QB (Rodgers) and two of the top-3 backs (McFadden and Fred Jackson). I'm tied for 2nd at the moment, and I think I have one of the strongest teams in the league.

So I'll close with a promise to keep everyone better updated on life and poker stuff. These past 6 months have been a big upheaval that have made me question my own identity, and ask big questions about what I'm going to be when I grow up (at 26.5 years old).

But the good news is, even for someone who's almost broke and currently unemployed, I like my prospects and I'm happy about the direction I'm headed.

Summarizing 3 months of real life

2011-08-06T02:10:00.000-07:00

This summary is an attempt to share the salient facts of how I went from there to here in the last 3 months. I haven't decided how fully I want to expand upon this, but if you'd like to hear more, ask direct questions in the comments.

So Black Friday happens. I have 'bout-$350 in my bank, $5.1k on Pokerstars ($4k withdrawal PENDING) and almost $1.1k on Full Tilt (for which I'm the escrow in the $1200 fantasy baseball league I'm holding). After hitting the roof like everybody else, I decide that Black Friday is Fate telling me to get a real job and find other means of supporting my life, other than a $2-5k/mo income from poker, and the Stars VIP Program.

Thankfully, Stars pays back U.S. players promptly. I have savings to live off of while finding my own "Knish's Truck." But to cover myself, for whatever the near future may bring in online poker, and to allow myself the ability to grind, I register TWO rakeback accounts on the Merge Poker Network, fToRrEeEsSt7 on Carbon (my old Pokerstars name) and ScoutMagomBondar on Black Chip Poker.

I get a job in sales, doing something I think I'd like and be good at.

It isn't what I thought I'd like, or what I thought I'd be good at, and I quit/they mutually agreed to terminate me after 5 days.

Coupla-3 weeks later, I get another job working as a server at a nice restaurant in the area. Two weeks after I start there, I have a HUGE nervous breakdown, with a VERY bad episode of manic-depression, which (I'm convinced) is due to a loss of self-identity from playing online poker. I spend 10 days in a mental hospital (no shit), I'm diagnosed with Bipolar Disorder I, and I get medicated.

I do much better with medication, claim my restaurant job back (miraculously, I thought they'd fire me), and continue playing on Merge, albeit at a greatly reduced rate, and work at the restaurant.

The great thing about the restaurant is that it's dinner-only, and I never have to be there before 5:30. I could find a day job in addition, while playing poker, when I feel like it, somewhat recreationally. I'm still currently looking for a day job, ideally in the apartment property management industry, using my resume strong with Real Estate credentials.

And that's where I'm at, real-life wise. Post in the comments if you'd like me to expand upon any of these topics.

Not "going dark" JUST yet...

2011-08-06T02:03:00.000-07:00

Hey everybody,

I haven't blogged in a while because of real-life stuff... some that I've wanted to blog about but some very personal stuff that I haven't wanted to blog about. Since I couldn't make up my mind where I drew the line, I just didn't blog until I've felt like blogging again.

In restaurants, "going dark" is when restaurants close without any warning. It probably seemed like I did that in the past 3 months since I've blogged, but I haven't quite yet. I just didn't know how much of real life I've been comfortable with sharing, and Black Friday has made everything feel like a time of great transition for me.

So I'm hoping my true friends and followers are still subscribed in RSS feeds and this'll pop up.

The three topics I've debated the extent to which I want to blog are: 1) real life stuff, 2) live and online poker stuff, and 3) fantasy sports, which has always been a huge passion and past-time and chance to write way too many words that nobody seems to care about.

If you're still out there, sound off in the comments which of those 3 you'd prefer I expand upon.

I've always said that commenters most directly skew the content I tend to post

April Recap, Oh yeah I used to play poker for a living

2011-05-09T18:15:00.001-07:00

I hadn't even looked at the monthly graph since Black Friday. Hey, 56k hands by April 15th, that's a pace for over 100k, that's pretty cool!

+900ish in 55k hands at 25,

...

-800 at NL100 in like 1k hands of NL100

lol woteva.

I ended my poker career snapping a ~30k hand breakeven at 25NL, that's dedication and love of the game right there.

On the one hand, I REALLY miss poker. I miss grinding. But at the same time, the games are hard, and they're only getting harder. I haven't been beating games I was a winner in 12 months ago. Without a doubt, the online poker landscape has changed forever since Black Friday, and nobody knows where it's headed.

So I've taken it as a sign that I need to make changes to my lifestyle, so that I can make the future that I want for myself. I'm deeply tempted to get a rakeback account with the Merge poker network, especially since it's going away after June 1. If I wind up doing it, it will only be as something for fun on the side. Plus, all I'm hearing is how tough the micros are getting with all the Stars and Tilt regs moving over, and a 2-4 week backlog of cashouts with all the new players on the Merge network. And, of course, there's no guarantee the DOJ won't just up and decide to stick it to Merge like they have Stars, Tilt, and AP/UB.

My primary focus is getting a real job now, and getting my Shi'ite together. Up next: my misadventures in the job market, post-poker, part 1.

WOWOWOWOW...

2011-04-28T17:44:00.000-07:00

...Atlanta Falcons NFL Football.

We traded this year's 1st, 2nd, and 4th round picks,

AND next year's 1st round and 4th round picks,

for the 6th overall pick from Cleveland, WR Julio Jones from Alabama.

Word is we tried to make this deal for Cincy's 4th pick and AJ Green, but it fell through. I'd be ok giving up that much for Green, because I've spent the last 3 years saying Green is slightly better than Jones. We sure gave up a TON. Apparently we had 9 picks to work with... but still. We are now all-in for 2011.

That said, Jones is definitely a stud. Having him opposite White, we can stretch the field now and take the lid off the top of the defense. He's got the size and toughness to work out of the slot and over the middle, as well. There are some concerns about his hands, but Roddy White has shown that hands can develop over time. Furthermore, he has a reputation as an exceptional run-blocker.

Our most glaring need to address this draft is to get an explosive playmaker opposite White for the offense, and we've certainly got that now. I worry about the price we've paid. But our highest priority for this season is fulfilled, and evidently Dimitroff thinks this is the piece that can put us over the top.

I get the feeling is that the real winner in this deal is Cleveland.

But no matter what, we've got our man and our playmaker. Watch out, opposing defenses!

Some good news for a change

2011-04-26T14:50:00.000-07:00

I had two interviews today, and both went great. I got offered a part-time job, which I'm somewhat ambivalent about,

and I got asked to come back for a 2nd interview for a full-time sales job that intrigues me. I'll know more when I go back tomorrow.

AND...

Pokerstars is now available to process U.S. cashouts!

...check your email.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

Hopefully Full Tilt will get off their bastard-stepchild asses and get me the rest of my money soon too. This EXACT reason is why I've always kept most of my money on Stars instead of Tilt. Because if the shit every truly hit the fan, [and it did], I always felt that Stars would take care of me better than Tilt would, [and they do].

I hope the climate eventually changes to where Pokerstars can come back, because for this they can have all of my online poker loyalty forever.

One week later

2011-04-23T09:01:00.000-07:00

"You never coooooooooount yooooooour money...

when you're sittin' at the table..."

My withdrawal with the 4k bonus didn't get processed before Black Friday.

So, all told, I have about 5.2k on Stars, and a little over 1k on Tilt, $1200 of which is fantasy baseball money due in September...

...and about $350 in my bank account.

Wish I was joking. I wish I had made better plans, better choices. If I'm going to go through a momentous vocational and lifestyle change, I wish I would have put myself in a situation to be able to make the transition on my own terms.

And make no mistake, big changes are ahead for me, one way or another. As much as I want to curse the name of Preet Bharara forever, he's probably doing me a favor. Looking back, I've had my head in the sand about the viability of online poker, for me, for too long. Instead of getting a job and keeping poker as a hobby, out of laziness I just played more hands instead and stayed "proudly" unemployed. And now, like it or not, ready or not, it's time for me to grow up and join the working world like most normal humans. At 26 I don't think I can claim "youthful" bad judgment.

So I've made mistakes and bad decisions, but I'm striving to be positive, not too hard on myself (though I richly deserve it), and treat this as a good thing.

The Chinese ideogram for the word "catastrophe" is a mixture of the ideograms for "crisis" and "opportunity."

So this past week I've been throwing on a tie and pounding the pavement looking for jobs. It's hard, but I've had some interviews and I'm getting prospects. I figure I need at least two jobs, plus whatever DJ'ing brings, right-the-hell-now.

Since poker is gone for the foreseeable future, and gone forever in it's past capacity for me,

I'm now going to make this blog my accountability journal for getting my life on track.

No promises how often or what I'll be posting about, and it won't hurt my feelings if people that read this seeking poker content go somewhere else,

But this is where I'm at now, and where I'm going, because it's time.

The good news is... if I can have the discipline to grind at something, and the intelligence to teach myself to do this:

...then I can learn to do anything I want in this world, if I apply myself.

End of the world?

2011-04-15T15:22:00.001-07:00

I no longer feel as relieved as I did when I made my last blog post.

Here is a copy of the indictment.

Here's an article from LA Times. The first line probably the most telling:

"The founders of the three largest online poker sites were indicted by the FBI on Friday in what could serve as a death blow to the thriving industry."

I'm reading what everyone else is reading, I have nothing more to add, other than who knows what this all means and where it's headed. We're just gonna have to wait and see what happens.

My last cashout was still pending... really hope it goes through, but at present I'm not optimistic about it.

In the meantime, for me, I guess it's time to start job-hunting.

What a relief

2011-04-14T06:49:00.001-07:00

I hate reading blogs where the author starts off by apologizing for not blogging so much lately, so I'm not gonna do that.

These last few weeks have been really depressing and stressful, for poker reasons and non-poker reasons. I failed my quit-smoking crusade in a BIG way last Friday. Went to a party, got really drunk, bought my first pack in a month and probably smoked a pack and a half in that night, which didn't end until 1 the next afternoon. Woke up the next (evening) feeling WORSE than hell. Looking back on the blog I made before I went out... I may have been in a destructive mindset. Anyway, waking up feeling like THAT has given me extra resolve to stop doing this shit to myself, and I've been back on the wagon ever since, so that's good. It's almost a week of being completely smoke-free, no cheating.

Been trying to keep at it at the gym, but I think now I have a stress fracture in my foot from all the running I've been doing. So I've been going a little lighter on the cardio and staying with the weights while I wait for my stupid foot to feel better.

But the really good news is that a big source of my stress has been lifted. The fantasy basketball league that I've been running ended today with the conclusion of the NBA season, and I paid out the winners. This was fortuitously timed with me clearing 250k FPP's for the $4,000 bonus, most of which I was able to withdraw.

So now I'm not AS stressed about holding other people's money, or my money in general. But I had been for about the last month or so. DJ'ing has really dried up lately, I used to be doing 3-4 shows a week for 250-400ish cash, but that's been trimmed down to only 1 gig per week. DJ'ing has always been my perfect balance for poker, because it gets me out of the house and meeting new people [read: girls]. These last few weeks I've been too much of an unshaven poker-playing caveman. It unbalances my social life and my poker game has definitely suffered because of that.

Haven't been playing too terribly well lately, even at lowly NL25... currently grinding through a 30k-hand (and counting) breakeven stretch/downswing. I have truly been running bad, but also I've probably been playing too many tables. I think I've auto-piloted being an aggro-donk too much, spite-called too many check/raises and 3-bets. Even fish start adjusting when you raise every hand and c-bet every flop heads up. I just get into ruts on 12-15 tables where every time it beeps at me, I treat it like "oh, guess it's my turn to bet or raise now," then next thing I know I'm on the turn or the river in a 40bb pot with air and no clue what to do, spewing all over the place.

But getting that 4k bonus is a HUGE relief for me being stressed about my life-bankroll.

It sucks because I have a lot of that money already earmarked for stuff, BEFORE I start attempting to tackle the debt that I'm in, or what it would cost for me to start working towards getting a mortgage license and a real job. Need new tires soon, pay the IRS, my parents need help with things... even when times are flush-er than usual, it seems like I can never get ahead.

Yet, for now, poker is my best means of making money, so that's what I'm going to keep doing. At least now I have the peace of mind that it's my own money, and I can be saving towards either building my life roll and attacking debt, or building a poker roll and attacking SSNL again... soon.

I haven't made up my mind yet, so we'll see, but for now I'm sticking to the grind and just trying to make better decisions, in poker and in life.

So far this month...

2011-04-08T17:13:00.000-07:00

...FFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUU poker

25 was going just fine, so I took a shot at NL100 again last Saturday

-$800 later, I limped back to 25, where things were going fine again,

until today where I had a nice little 12-buyins-below-EV-in-2k-hands kind of a day

with not one but TWO rage-quits

So I'm gonna go do something else for tonight.

But the good news is 12 buyins at 25 is only $300. That's not even enough to emotionally register, compared to what I'm used to.

So I'm gonna go have some fun tonight, and come back tomorrow and mostly fold until these retards give me lots of money, because they CAN'T. KEEP. HITTING. EVERYTHING. ALLTHETIME.

235k FPP's, those last 15k can't get here soon enough.

March Recap/April Goals

2011-03-31T23:07:00.001-07:00

The good news... March at NL25:

How bout that volume, that's a lot for me! That 25k-hand breakeven was among the most frustrating stretches I can ever recall playing at 25, but emotionally it's nothing compared to what I've been through at NL100. Thankfully March finished strong, and 100 buyins on the month sure has a nice ring to it.

The bad news... March at NL50/NL100:

LOL sample size, ran pretty bad, etc.

I only played higher than 25 on Fridays or Saturdays, also, when the games are presumably at their best, which makes that even more annoying. But I may not have been playing my best, perhaps played a little scared-money, yet I was just getting my teeth kicked in every time I sat down to play. I certainly ran bad too, I remember getting oversetted by at least 3 different people.

Still, it's only 4k hands, that's a statistical fart, especially compared to my month at 25.

My hourly at 25 this month was almost $19/hr, just from the tables, not counting FPP's. My winrate was only 5 ptBB/100, but I'm a winner at closer to 7 lifetime, so I think I can claim I ran kinda-bad, and I think I can count on that hourly to be closer to $25/hr. Again, that's just from the tables, I'll be getting a $4k bonus eventually this month!

Point is, that hourly is better than any menial job I could get right now. I was able to play so much this month because the DJ'ing has been a little lean lately, I've had regular gigs only 2 nights per week.

Poker's future is very uncertain, with all the legislative rumors going on in Nevada, Florida, New Jersey, and elsewhere. I've stopped trying to figure out what's happening, to worry over stuff I can't control. Everyone's great fear is that, like Washington state residents, they'll wake up one day and can't play online poker. Then we hear that Steve Wynn has teamed up with Pokerstars to try to get something done legislatively, only nobody really knows any details or when or if anything will happen. That might be the holy grail, legal, regulated online poker with the government's blessing. Then we hear it might be US-only. But again, nobody really knows anything and there's no timeframe for anything to happen, so no point in fretting.

When I was coming up through the micros and into small stakes, I didn't set very empirical goals. I wanted to make infinite money and improve to an infinite skill level. Now, I'm playing lower stakes than what I've been able to beat, because it's easier on my sanity. On one hand, even though I know it's irrational, I feel like a failure, because my game seems to be progressing in the wrong direction. On the other hand, I think I'm doing the right thing making practical, mature (OMG NIT!!) decisions with my life-bankroll management.

The long-term plan I keep talking about is that I want to (eventually) leave the lifestyle of being an online poker player. My best friend is a loan officer and mortgage broker, and does well for himself. I have real estate experience from my family's business. I need to get a mortgage license first, and to do that I need to be at least working my way out of debt.

My personal debt isn't insurmountable, but it's enough to be a roadblock for getting a license. Added all up it's around $10k, but I can probably settle some of it for less.

Anyway, all that is down the road, neither I nor this blog are going anywhere anytime soon, and this post has rambled on long enough. But that's what I'm grinding towards now, and that's what I'm throwing most of my $4k bonus at as soon as it hits.

April goals:

[ ] 85k hands
[ ] table-select better and run better when I play above NL25
[ ] stay quit of cigarettes
[ ] keep crushing the gym, minimum 4 days per week

The good and bad

2011-03-26T23:49:00.000-07:00

The good news is I'm still quit of cigarettes. I officially "quit" three Sundays ago. Since I quit, I have smoked a total of 7 cigarettes (in 3 weeks, which is better than 20-25 a day), all bummed, and I felt terrible after each one. The last one I bummed was this past Wednesday, and the last one before that was the Wednesday before that. Staying quit while drinking, and being around drinking and smoking a lot, continues to be extremely difficult. But as long as I don't buy a pack again, or smoke when the sun is up, I'll consider it a victory.

I ran two miles yesterday for the first time since high school. I'm running a little more each day, lifting a little more each day, and feeling really great about myself. I'm starting to get the slightest hint of tone and definition in my arms. Still got a gut, and that seems to be going NOWHERE no matter how much I work out and run, which is almost every day. I think the problem is I suck at eating right, because eating right means you have to eat right ALL the goddamn time, and that is REALLY lame. Plus, with all this working out and running and not smoking, I'm hungry all the time, and usually eat too much.

But whatever. The net effect is I feel much healthier, and that's all that really matters.

The bad is that this has been one of the most frustrating months of poker I can recall. It doubly sucks because my volume has been fantastic, but the results have been real bad. I'll talk more about this when I recap March... as well as talk about what goals I'm going to set for myself for poker in the near-long term.

The gist of it is I'm going to continue being the leather-assed tallest midget at 25NL for most of the foreseeable future... with the intention of grinding towards getting out of the game altogether.

But don't worry, readers, this isn't goodbye, not now or anytime soon. I'll write about all that when I feel up to it.

Lots on my mind lately

2011-03-15T11:55:00.000-07:00

When I was in high school, I kept a journal. It wasn't a "diary," because diaries are something chicks do, but that's basically what it was. I'd write about whatever was on my mind, and it was a collection of my most personal thoughts that I wouldn't want to tell anyone.

I was such a dork that I'd be paranoid other people might try to read it. So, I started keeping my journal in a coded language based off the Greek alphabet. If you knew all the letters of the Greek alphabet, and how they sounded phonetically, you could probably break the code. I had to make some adaptations, like using the normal " W " because the Greek alphabet doesn't have W's.

I still have my old journals, of course... looking back, I was just an especially emotionally-constipated hormonal teenager, who thought too much about stuff instead of doing stuff about it.

Anyway, that's what this blog has kind of turned into for me. Writing about stuff makes the thoughts in my head seem a little less chaotic.

And there's lots going on in my life that I'm always thinking about, but sadly, for practical considerations I can't really blog about the details of it, for personal reasons.

To summarize: I read a great book that had me crying and questioning all the decisions I've made in my life. I'll blog about that later. Poker's going meh. By "meh," I mean I'm utterly crushing 25, but (perhaps predictably?) feeling burned out in general. I'm making longer-term plans and goals that will give my poker-playing more clarity and focus. I'll blog about that later too. And finally, I almost made the decision to start smoking again, but I didn't. Also, girls are completely crazy. I didn't quit for a girl, I quit for me, and to smoke again would invalidate that precept.

...Whatever it takes to stay motivated.

If I had known how much gym time helps with all this, I would have stuck with it much longer ago.

Back to crushing

2011-03-13T16:46:00.001-07:00

I took a deep breath after that last session and have put in about 10k hands between then and now, and that graph is much prettier than the last one.

Lots going on lately, UGA made the NCAA tournament somehow, fantasy baseball is gearing up, and I'm gonna make a big post about poker soon.

I wasn't DJ'ing Saturday so I went out, drank a little bit, and smoked 3 cigarettes. I felt pretty bad about it, but I'm back on the wagon now.

It's going to be really tough for me to drink and not smoke. Of course it probably wouldn't be a bad thing for my life if I just didn't drink, but I really enjoy drinking with my friends.

So I dunno, we'll see. I still want to stay quit of cigarettes, that's the most important thing.

Fuck Irritability

2011-03-10T18:26:00.001-08:00

^^All 25, which is impressive because I didn't even know that was possible for me in a day. There was even a 6-buyin stoploss AND a nap in that graph. It was waiting for me when I got back.

If someone is going to 3-bet the seven and the deuce offsuit, well then they HAVE to call the 4-bet and see a flop, obviously. That hand may have contributed to tilt.

...Most importantly, still haven't smoked since I quit, which is worth any short-term variance in poker.

And it's nothing I can't make back in a day or two anyway.

hahaha

FUCK

gym.

Almost 48 hours now...

2011-03-08T14:25:00.000-08:00

I'll be cigarette-free for 48 hours at 10 pm tonight.

When that anniversary comes around, I'll be at a bar where lots of people drink and smoke, just finishing up my trivia gig.

I really want to stay quit, but MAN this shit messes with my head.

The gum helps an awful lot. I haven't gotten an e-cig yet, that's going to be my last resort if I can't quit with the gum. Since I've made it this far, I think I'll be ok. In previous quitting attempts I tried quitting cold turkey, without the gum. I think I did that because I wanted to give my mind a placebo-effect boost for when I DO try the gum, when I REALLY do want to quit, which is now.

Anyway, of course I still think about cigarettes all the time, want to smoke all the time, etc etc. I dread getting into the car because I know I'll get a craving. When I take the gum it dulls the cravings for a while, but they eventually come back.

I'm guessing it'll only be like this for a few weeks, hopefully it'll only be this BAD for a few more days.

Been running a lot lately. That helps.

Since I started smoking, I've never made it two full days before, so I'm taking all this as a positive sign.

Dreading and eagerly looking forward to Monday, at the same time

2011-03-04T11:52:00.000-08:00

So Monday is the day I'm quitting smoking.

I've been planning to quit for a few weeks now... when I heard about the huge Sunday Million, I said that the day after that will be the day I'll quit. I do want to play it, and every time I make a deep run in tournaments I tend to smoke at a higher rate than normal. I'll be able to smoke while I play that, and after that, I have no more reasons to continue smoking.

If you smoke a pack a day for years, and only pay cash for cigarettes, that means you'll have a TON of change. That, plus fast food change, just goes into the center console of my car, and when that overflows it goes to a bucket in my room. Today I took the bucket to the Coin-Star, and got back almost $200, AFTER paying the 9.8% vig. Thinking about that drives home that I've been smoking for too long.

I took that money and got the heavy-duty 4mg nicotine gum, and I'm going to the mall to get an e-cig tomorrow. I'll need to be careful mixing the two, because nicotine overdose is a real possibility. The plan is to e-cig when I have to be DJ'ing or in bars, and use the gum when I'm home and playing poker.

This event will probably be my farewell to online tournament poker. Whenever I make a deep run, my rate of cigarette consumption goes way up. But honestly I don't think I'll miss tournament poker... it's caused me a lot more frustration than money, and my time is definitely better-spent grinding cash anyway. The last notable tournament score I had was 18 months ago for 16k, and I'm sick of chasing that dragon with all the other degens.

...After the HUGE one this weekend, anyway, haha.

I'm worried about how quitting will affect my poker playing. I smoked in my apartment while playing for a long time, then got grossed out with that and quit smoking inside. Cigarettes are good for anti-tilt, taking a break and a walk, etc. Well, now I can chew the gum inside while I play.

And the stakes I'll be playing (NL25) isn't as difficult or as emotionally volatile as the stakes I played for a long time. I know that to quit successfully you basically have to change all your routines, and practically your life. I hope I can quit and still play poker, because for now I have to.

I'll definitely stop drinking for a while, at least a month. I don't drink like I used to, which is good, but I usually have a coupla-three beers when I'm DJ'ing... so I'm gonna put a stop to that.

I'll probably blog about how crazy I'm going so you guys can all follow along.

Wish me luck

No losing days in March

2011-03-01T14:46:00.001-08:00

February Recap/March Goals

2011-03-01T04:08:00.001-08:00

I am extremely tilted as I write this. Not because of February, since February went fine. I ended up shipping my prop for February NL25 profits, for another $125. All things considered, I think I played pretty great, and beat 25 for better than 10 ptBB/100 over more than 50k hands ( <3 deep tables). I even finished over EV on the month.

I'm tilted because I celebrated my solid February by putting in a spewtastic tilt session at 50 to start off March. Went up to +300 quickly, and didn't have the good sense to quit until I was almost -500... screaming right past the stop-loss I set for myself ... when I'm playing NL100.

NL50 may or may not still be rigged, but I definitely tilt and spew and never quit regs and play with my ego, and it's all extremely annoying and I feel like a dumbass.

No matter how much I blog about how deeply self-aware I am of my tilt, for all that's worth, it doesn't magically go away.

So I'm going to do more things that make me less tilted, like hit the gym. I lift some weights, and then run on the treadmill for as long as my leather-lungs will allow, until I feel like I'm about to puke (new record yesterday: 8.5 minutes, 1 mile).

Then my body is reduced to a sore, quivering mass of Jell-O, but at least it makes my mind feel sharper.

Eating healthier food, doing laundry and the dishes, and the monotony of the treadmill are all a giant metaphor for the permanence of The Grind.

Quitting smoking next Monday, right after I win the million dollars and the lambo. If I DO make a deep run, I'm positive my mind won't be right with the stress I'll be under, which is why I'm not quitting sooner. But after that, no more excuses.

As for March goals, fuck it I don't know. 75k hands. Gonna play more 25, because apparently I haven't overcome everything that I'm working on between my ears. Being stressed about money and playing on a short roll is no bueno, so I'm going to stay at 25 until both of those factors resolve themselves.

I'll probably be playing a range of stakes between 25-100, with the ultimate goal being to get back to NL100, which may or may not occur by the end of March. The changes to the buy-in structure have definitely improved the quality of the games. I put in way too many hands last year in bad games, but since I still won, albeit with high variance and a low winrate, I'm fundamentally assured of the fact that I can be a winning player if I'm always making the best decisions, at least most of the time.

Update to fix your HEM hud on Stars deep tables

2011-02-28T10:24:00.000-08:00

Download it here

According to a thread on hold'em manager's support forums, the programmers have fixed the problem, but they wanted to wait til the next official update to release it.

If you don't want to wait that long, a member of HEM support uploaded the internal fix to MegaUpload, which you can download from the link above.

For your daily moment of Zen

2011-02-25T01:58:00.001-08:00

If you only eat raisin bran, celery, carrots, salads with tuna, lentils, and fruit for a few days...

then the quality, volume, and suddenness of your bowel movements will surprise and amaze you.

That's all I've got for now.

NL25 vs NL100

2011-02-17T16:38:00.000-08:00

Still playing mostly NL25 this month for the prop I'm doing. By every objective measure I'm crushing the game, which is nice, but my volume isn't quite where it needs to be. I'm a little behind the two people that are taking it seriously, L3NGTHY and sk345di. They were each around 40k hands, 35 buyins or so as of last Saturday, and I was at 23k hands, 25 buyins. Now I'm up to 30k hands and 40 buyins, for some nice little run-hot when I've found the time to play this week, but if they keep their pace up I'll have a difficult time catching up. Jury duty slowed me down this week, plus DJ'ing, and of course ALL this time I'm trying to put in at the gym!

I'm not too concerned about the prop itself, obv (it's only 25 bucks a head), and I'm getting from this what I wanted: some time to get my head back on straight and regain some confidence.

What I wanted to talk about today is that I think I pick up habits at NL25 that are leaks at NL100. The basic gist of it is that I make thinner calls that are right often enough at NL25, but are spewy at NL100. Some examples:

40/10 fish opens UTG, 70/5 fish calls in MP1. 3-betting is an option for me with JJ in the CO, but I'm not trying to get jacks in vs almost anyone 9-handed for 100 big blinds. Flop comes 7-5-2 with a diamond draw. Opener bets $5 at $4, other fish flats ?!?!? $20 effective, what do you do?

All I could think about was how I might be inclined to get away from this at NL100. Shoving could be bad, because the opener never folds anything better. He might call with 88-TT, A7, etc, but it seems kinda thin. I'm not too worried about the bigger fish who flatted. So I do what I do best with an overpair in a pot vs two fish, and I get it all in there. Opener calls with the nut diamond draw, and the other fish overcalls his full stack off (lol) with 44, still working on his set draw. Somehow I fade both and win the 320bb pot, ez game.

Standard button vs blinds spot. I open AQo for 3x from the button, SB calls, flop A-K-8. Small blind leads for $1 more than the pot. Raising is an option here, but I decide to just call. Turn is another 8, he checks. Shrug, I have TPTK, I bet, he check/shoves. This is a snap-fold at 100, and definitely a very light call at 25. But I called, and he had 77 for another set draw.

Lots of stuff like that. I isolate a limp/caller with AQ, flop queen high, c-bet gets called. Turn is another brick, and I get check/shoved on. I know, baluga theorem and everything... he had the Q-5, and somehow it was still only one pair when he moved in.

People just so routinely do such catastophically stupid things. They do that at 100 too, but it's just everywhere at 25. I think what makes the difference is how much better I play vs regs at 25 compared to regs at 100. I print money in redline vs regs at 25. And while my redline is nice at 100 as well, it seems necessarily correlated with a little more spew than I'd like.

It should be noted that all these opponents are fish (obviously) or randoms... and of course I'd never call down NL100 regs in spots like that. But I think that playing this way vs fish and reg-fish at NL25 is potentially reinforcing bad habits that become leaks in my game at NL100.

I dunno how I'd work on that, just try to be a little more careful and thoughtful next time I'm playing at NL100. I still don't have the roll for it for now anyways, because I've had to make withdrawals for life stuff that keeps coming up.

So in the meantime, I guess I'll just keep crushing 25, and maybe taking the occasional shot at 100 when the games look good.

The fact that I have absolutely zero stress playing at NL25 is very comforting. I just worry that it comes at the expense of my poker development... making me dumber to put in all these hands vs inferior competition, instead of actively challenging myself and pushing myself to the frontiers of my mind and my bankroll. But alas, there are practical considerations.

I'm trying to do a better job of separating my poker bankroll from my life bankroll. I'd like to be much more comfortable than I am now with both.

I just don't want to become OhCanada and HomerrrJay, putting in 200k hands a month at 25.

It sure would be convenient for me if there were a level between NL25 and NL100, that I could beat at a rate of approximately half the difference between my NL25 winrate and my NL100 winrate.

But we all know NL50 is so freaking rigged it's not even funny, so there ya go.

Thoughts about quitting smoking (tobacco)

2011-02-15T13:49:00.000-08:00

I haven't gone 2 days without smoking a cigarette in 7 years now, that sure seems like it should be long enough. I've been working out somewhat consistently for a month now, and that really feels great... even though my cardio is for shit... because I smoke. I know smoking is basically the biggest single life leak and health leak anybody could have, and there are innumerable other good reasons to quit.

I'm extremely apprehensive about quitting. In the past, I've thought of working up the courage to quit in the sense of only attempting to quit when I had maximized its possible chance of success: buy a new car, move, throw away all my ash trays and lighters, etc.

I've been reading on the interwebs about quitting, maybe I need to take the opposite approach: make quitting attempts at a thorough and high frequency. If I fail, so what? Just quit again! The moment I stub out a cigarette, I have literally quit smoking. It's not until I decide to light up again later that I become a smoker.

I want to quit. But you have to really REALLY want to quit to actually quit. And it's not a decision you make just once, it's a decision you make over... and over... and over again, forever.

So for now I've taken the (truly significant) step of quitting smoking in my apartment. This is a big deal because I smoke while I play poker. I won't say that cigarettes make my tilt better, but I would say that my tilt threshold goes much lower as nicotine withdrawal worsens.

I've been grazing on lots of baby carrots and celery instead... until it gets unbearable... and then I go outside.

While I'm attempting to quit, it's basically the worst permanent life-tilt imaginable. And if you've never smoked, you can't even imagine it. Until I inevitably fail... and then everything goes back to normal.

It's going to be extra hard for me, because by this point now my life is all one big nicotine trigger in it's entirety, between poker, and DJ'ing at bars. When my Dad quit, he didn't have an alcoholic drink for about 5 years, and as long as I've known him he's never been a drinker. I get the sense that he was a very different person before I came along.

The one thing that gives me some hope is that you hear lots of reformed smokers say "If I, of ALL people, could quit, then anybody can." When I quit that will be me too.

So that's where I am now: still hitting the gym sometimes, want to quit for real, have quit smoking in my apartment, but haven't attempted to really quit yet.

But I feel like I'm making progress.

Heh, glad I didn't bet on that...

2011-02-10T01:35:00.001-08:00

My "get-my-head-on-straight" self-pennance at NL25 continues to go swimmingly,

The 250bb deep tables feature quite a lot of comedy. I like that I feel like I'm one level above any of the other regs, because the nits are pretty face-up most of the time. Also, lol, 3bet-bluffing a flop checkraise is a very underrated move, and good for image no matter how it winds up.

Today I reverse-owned a chat-tard reg who berates people a lot, it was pretty funny. Heads up at a deep table, I checked back the river when I'd improved to top two pair, after bet/betting the first two streets pretty big (back when I had his pair dominated). SPR was ~1.4 and he was going for the crai with the rivered backdoored nut flush.

Even took a couple successful shots back into NL100, just to see how it's seeming lately. Wanna keep a close eye as the buyin changes get fully implemented, and do my part to start tables.

So according to the numbers I have, which counts 100bb poker, euro, PL, and deep, I should be somewhere around the top 5 for what PTR has this month so far at NL25, but I couldn't even find myself in the top-50. PTR isn't 100% accurate, obviously, but it's kinda funny to see how much of my motivation for doing this was tied to getting that little UGL profile badge, haha.

Thank heavens it's caught all 6 of the royal flushes I've shown down... I check each time.

It's funny cuz I got a pretty hot start (though it's cooled off), and was thinking of making posts like "should I ask for 2:1 or 1:1 on making UGL at 25 this month?", but then thought better of it. So whatever, I'm still gonna compare my graph at the end of this month to whatever the winner ends up posting, for posterity's sake!

I'm still trying to remove ego from the equation, so this is probably better for me anyway.

I still wanna see how much I can crank out in a dedicated month of NL25, but I might be spending more time getting re-acclimated to SSNL, hopefully.

Post-Superbowl Football Thoughts

2011-02-07T14:47:00.000-08:00

I've figured that, like actual sports journalists and meteorologists, I can do a much better job of writing about what happened than predicting what's going to happen.

The big story of the Super Bowl was how great Aaron Rodgers played, and he deserves much of the hyperbole that's currently being heaped upon him. That strike on 3rd and 10 to Jennings in the 4th quarter for 31 yards was positively a thing of beauty, and came at exactly the biggest moment in that drive.

My one hope is that Matt Ryan sees all this and is inspired to raise his game to that level as well. Rodgers had a couple embarassing playoff defeats before that, and I hope seeing how Rodgers is perceived now will bring the best out of Ryan's work ethic in the offseason heading into next year. I think he's a good leader, hard worker, and wants to improve.

The Falcons definitely need more weapons and more pieces in place in a few key spots. I won't expand on it too much (Larry Fitzgerald or Vincent Jackson wish list ONE TIME!), but I feel like we're in excellent hands with Dimitroff calling the shots. Can't wait to see what he uncovers in the draft.

About receivers, I feel like some playmaker either out of the slot, or a deep threat to go opposite Roddy, [either one of each or a guy that can do both], is the biggest priority. I think we extended Michael Jenkins in the offseason, and I don't hate him as much as some Falcons fans do. I get that we're trying to build it from the ground up, and he's still young with room to improve, etc etc, I just think we need more weapons that can up the dynamism of the offense.

I love Harry Douglas and Jason Snelling's hustle and grit, but I think they may have too much of a role being asked of them now.

I seem to think we're better off than most on the defensive side. I worry about what the plan is for the pass rush, as Abraham isn't getting any younger. I think what Brian Van Gorder is trying to do with the defense is ABSOLUTELY predicated on having 4 above-average D-linemen who can rush the quarterback from both inside and out. So we'll see.

Again, I'm basically waiting to see what Dimitroff does, and then I'll get excited about them and comment.

But for now, at least until NFL Draft Fever really gets going hot, I'm switching fully into baseball mode (while keeping an eye on NBA basketball as well). Already getting thoughts in place for fantasy baseball, will probably blog about that here soon as well.

'Sup, internet. What should I blog about?

2011-02-04T09:07:00.000-08:00

I have said multiple times in this space that this blog is really more for me than it is for you, the reader. That hasn't changed... if my goals for writing this blog were to increase and attract new readership, then I'd take a different approach than writing massive constipated walls of nonsensical and disjointed text. And I'd sell ads.

I always have lots of disconnected and random thoughts swirling around in my head. I find that simply writing them down helps me give order to those thoughts, and it's an invaluable emotional catharsis.

So I actually feel for you, the reader, if anyone actually slogs through all this stuff I write. And if you enjoy reading the content I produce, well, that gives me a sense of satisfaction (which of course is ancillary to the primary reasons I write, anyway).

So I have lots I could blog about. But with all the hours in a given workweek in which I waste my life away on the internet, my hourly would be better spent crushing NL25. In the name of efficiency, since my commenters have a disproportionate impact on future content, let me know which of the following topics you would like for me to write about:

-Sports. I could write about the Superbowl. I like Green Bay -2.5 and under 44.5. But as I've ALSO said many times in this space, I'm not a particuarly good sports bettor, and won't be betting this myself. Ever since the Falcons backbreaking home playoff loss, my sporting energy has shifted to Braves baseball and fantasy baseball. I'm currently in 3rd place in my fantasy basketball league, hovering between 2nd and 5th most of the season (top 3 pay). I'm having much more fun with fantasy basketball than I have in the past. I've maybe watched a combined one or two actual NBA games this season. But Russell Westbrook, who I couldn't pick out of a police lineup, is freaking PHENOMENAL.

-Funny observations and interactions from DJ'ing. After two years of doing this professionally, and many more recreationally, I STILL truly love karaoke. I get to meet people, be the center of attention, people-watch, and it's lots of fun. It's especially funny to poker players when your decision-making process is to think of everything in terms of equity analysis, psychology (perceived vs actual ranges), and acting ... at least, I think it's funny. And I get to hang out with HOO-WASTED, morbidly obese black chicks, some of whom want to rape me, how could THAT ever be boring?

-Girls, and my dating life. I find this topic extremely difficult to write about, because in talking about the comedy of misadventures of my dating life, I feel the need to give excessive backstory to explain why I think about stuff this way. The writing then becomes overly tangential and parenthetical, even by my standards. But perhaps there are other nerds out there who could benefit from me writing about my experiences. Alas, there are also obvious practical considerations that would preclude me from laying out ALL ... my TRUEST ... un-withheld thoughts on the subject. I can think of at least one person whom I wouldn't want to read some of those deeply personal thoughts. Or, isn't the whole POINT to be honest and truthful and share that sort of thing with that sort of person? This blog IS linked from my facebook, but it's probably okay because we all know girls don't read.

-Drugs. I haven't smoked pot in about a month... I feel pretty good about it, too. It was definitely time for a break. I have lots of thoughts about ADD and having an addictive personality type, but I hope I don't sound like some pop-psycho-babbling child, I write, as I smoke a cigarette and drink my 32 oz Monster Energy Drink. I think 20-somethings who smoke, and are also vegetarians, are SUPREMELY ironic.

So let me know in the comments which of those topics you'd like for me to expand upon, to balance my desire to order my thoughts while being somewhat less inefficient with the hours I spend in front of a computer. Speaking of amusing ironies, I need to play lots of hands now if I'm going to have time for the gym before I go to my gig tonight.

January Recap/February Goals

2011-01-31T16:00:00.001-08:00

According to PTR, I beat NL100 for about 1.5 ptBB/100 over almost 400k hands.

Yet somehow I lose at -2 ptBB/100 over 90k hands at NL50. It's only the NL50 USD tables that are rigged, I beat 50 Euro tables.

You figure it out. Anyway, guess where I started playing 25 in that ^^ graph.

And when it rains, it pours, a few days ago my car broke down on the side of the road... distributor cap. Tow + getting it fixed = 30 buyins at 25... AWESOME, so I had to withdraw some to cover that + February bills.

All these are the reasons for my bold proclamation that I will win UGL at NL25 in February. To further motivate myself, I got involved with a prop for February total winnings by stakes on two plus two. My main competition is going to be L3NGTHY, (and Raf and everyone else in the 25NL pool are no slouches either,) and I'm excited for the opportunity.

L3NGTHY is a talented player. He won UGL at NL25 last September, November, AND December, and he beats 25 for a higher winrate than I do, over more hands. There'd certainly be no shame in losing out to him.

But this time I'm motivated. If L3NGTHY reads this, I expect him to take his very best shot, because that's what he'll get from me.

The average UGL winner at 25 has won around $2k-$2.5k for the last few months. I'm going to be disappointed in myself if I make less than $3k. However, it's far from certain that I'll win, I'm not going to be the only one doing work at NL25. Those nits OhCanada and HomerJay are each probably good for about 175-200k hands per month, and there are some other clowns that have been making a name for themselves lately at NL25. Those two clowns Jaybe and Shoulder420 have a magic-freaking-power to cooler the bajeezus out of me, and generally play pretty well.

But I can do anything I set my mind to. So for this coming month, I'm going to channel my pathological competitiveness and unflappable ego into doing something amazing at NL25.

Then I'll have a comfy bankroll, coupled with the buy-in changes, to see if I can figure out how to beat NL100 again in March.

My ego is a weird thing. I want to take pride in my results at 25, but at the same time it makes me feel almost like a failure, because I haven't been having big results at NL50 and NL100 in quite a while.

No matter. I'm going to remove the negative effects of my ego, and just play this game the best way I know how.

I've also been hitting the gym semi-consistently. If I had known how much better it would make me feel, what better moods I'm usually in, and how much sharper it makes my mind feel, I would have stuck to it a long time ago.

February goal:

[ ] win the Ultimate Grinder Leaderboard at NL25

Nothing less will satisfy me.

Some thoughts about Ego in Poker

2011-01-31T00:06:00.000-08:00

This is something I didn't really notice until I moved down to put some more volume in at 25:

I have a really big ego, and it's quite possibly a bigger leak than I've ever realized.

When I'm playing at 100, I feel confident that I can hold my own with even the best of the regs. But when I'm playing at 25, I feel like I'm rightfully the Master of the Universe. Whenever I lose a pot more than 10 big blinds, it seems like a travesty has occurred, and that it's Just Not The Way Things Are Supposed To Be. Then I feel the need to prove that I am, in fact, God Incarnate, and then proceed to "outplay" the target of all my negativity.

...With predictably spewy results.

When a downswing at 25 gets to an annoying threshold, say 6 buyins, (I say "annoying" and not "painful," because 25 isn't 100, right?), then I stop, take a deep breath. "Ok, you dumbass, are you feeling satisfied yet? Get off bad tables, start some more new ones, learn to make post-flop folds, and wait until your cards match the board's cards better than anyone else's hole cards, this shit isn't rocket science."

...And eventually I crush again.

I've been playing poker for a long time, I don't know why I don't recognize this obvious cycle for what it is.

I also don't get why I can't think of any downswing that way at 100. It's all the same, just times 4. The obvious answer, is that no matter how much I try to rationalize, I can't remove my emotional investment in the variable amounts of money at stake. Being down $600 feels more than 4 times worse than being down $150.

It's not realistic to strive for not HAVING emotions. Instead, I must strive for always playing my best at all times, and never letting my emotions affect the quality of my play.

I must be honest with myself, and quit when I feel myself reaching that threshold... it releases the tilt demons lurking inside me, just below the surface, ready to reign disorganized chaos on my mind and my bankroll if I lose the discipline that unshackles them.

Anyway, I have big plans for February. I'll talk more about it in my January Recap, but...

I'm winning UGL at NL25.

Pokerstars Changes The Buyin Structure!

2011-01-29T14:35:00.000-08:00

Basically, we (the full-stacked pros and semi-pros) got what we wanted.

Stars made what had to be a tough business decision (because the 20-50 tables were rake MONSTERS) for the good of the future of online poker.

Pokerstars is eliminating the 20-50bb game, and replacing them with 20bb cap games, from the higher microstakes on up.

They're also fixing the noisy lobby labeling system, making the 40-100bb tables "standard."

The thinking is that this will bring the fish away from flipping and rat-holing the 20-50 tables, and put them back with us at the 40-100 tables.

The changes will be fully implemented February 10th. Nobody knows how much of an effect it will have, how much the games will change, and just how many fish there are still out there.

But for now, this is an overwhelmingly positive development. I applaud Pokerstars for making this decision, and continue to be proud to give them practically all my online poker action.

Just what I needed

2011-01-22T04:32:00.000-08:00

...So I guess I have nothing left to prove, to myself or anybody else, at NL25.

It would be nice to run at or above AIEV for once, but I'm not gonna complain too much about running over TWELVE ptBB/100.

After I made that last post I put in a huge session at 25, and my mood went from "What am I going to DO?!?!?" to "I wonder if I can win the Ultimate Grinder Leaderboard at NL25 for January, even if I didn't start until the 19th?"

This is like playing Halo on Easy difficulty, and then being bored with how easy it is, therefore I'll go for ONLY headshot kills to make it a challenge, and only throw grenades if I can stick someone or kill at least 3 guys at the same time.

Also, Ace-high (or King-high) is the nuts on the river if it's 4-handed or less.

River call efficiency > 2.0

Going forward, still don't know what I'm gonna do long-term, I'll post some thoughts about it sometime. Eagerly anticipating the buyin changes.

But in the meantime, it's nice to be reminded that I still know how to play this game.

I refuse to feel sorry for myself

2011-01-18T09:36:00.000-08:00

...Running real bad.

I'm not gonna whine about my EV, which gets worse and worse every day, without end, no matter what I do,

I'm not gonna whine about the state of the games, which is completely unsustainable. Hopefully it will improve when Stars changes the buyin structure. If not... then... I dunno. The games from Monday to Thursday are completely unplayable, the regs are eating each other alive, and apparently I'm not as high in the regs pecking order as I thought. And I'm especially way more prone to tilting, lately.

For the results I've been having, it can't be just a combination of those two factors, I must be playing poorly as well. So I will do the only thing I know to do: work on my game, drop down in stakes, play less tables, and plug leaks.

I'll quit poker before I become an FPP pro. I'm not going to keep breaking even (or worse) at SSNL to live off of rakeback. I play poker to make money, and if I'm not making money at 50 and 100, then I'll play at 25.

So that's what I'm going to be doing for the foreseeable future.

I'm strongly re-evaluating my life choices at this juncture.

But in the near-term (like the next 3 months), my monthly budget necessitates that I make at least SOMEthing from poker.

So that means you'll find me at 25. Maybe I'll play higher if I'm feeling froggy on the weekends. I'd rather not lose my Supernova status, which I probably can't keep if I play 100% at 25. Unfortunately, every time I dip my toes back in at 100, they get bitten off, in painful chunks at a time.

I beat 100 at a reasonable, even respectable, clip, over almost 400k hands. :-/ That feels like soooooooo long ago.

Right now I don't even have all the money I'm holding, on my word, (which I take VERY seriously) for the fantasy basketball league I'm running. If any of my league-mates read this, rest assured I'll make it right by the time it's time to pay out... I'm close to another bonus anyway.

Suffice to say, it's all very upsetting.

Other than that, though, life is actually really good! My dad finally finished a brutal 2nd round of chemo after his surgery. DJ'ing is still fun, and one of my colleagues may have to take a sabbatical for health reasons, which means more work for me. I'm cutting the smoking back and I'm working out again, (which is how you can tell this run-bad is really REALLY bothering me). I even met a nice girl that I like (though it's way too early to say anything more than that).

NFL Divisional Round Picks

2011-01-14T12:11:00.000-08:00

Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS, Saturday 4:30 pm ET

There is precisely one NFL division rivalry that I make sure to watch every installment every year, and this is it. It's such a beautiful testament to what football is and is supposed to be, with two teams that really hate each other. Both teams believe they have the best defense in the NFL, and both teams claim to be the most physical team on offense and defense. What we wind up with is 60 minutes of two teams literally trying to murder each other on the field. It's gonna be a close one, and unlike last week I'm trying to learn from my mistakes, so TAKE the points in a close game!

ATLANTA FALCONS (-1.5) vs Green Bay Packers, Saturday 8 pm ET

I'm going to be a nervous WRECK watching this game (while DJ'ing a karaoke gig, frown). I'm also incapable of rational, non-emotional analysis, seeing as my team is involved. I know by most objective measures the Packers are a better team than the Falcons, statistically. Turner hasn't been as productive late in the year as he was early in the year, Rodgers is really clicking right now. Our only hope is turnovers, defense, and a rejuvenated rushing attack from that extra week off. Whether it's fair or not (and it isn't), whichever quarterback loses this game will develop a reputation as having a playoff monkey on their back, due to the circumstances of their last playoff loss. I really hope the Falcons aren't one and done after all the progress they've made and the fantastic year they've had this year.

Seattle Seahawks +10 at CHICAGO BEARS, Sunday 1 pm ET

Marshawn Lynch BEAST MODE is BACK! What a sight that run was, and I actually remember his rookie year in Buffalo, which was the last time he was running like that. The Bears are such complete overachieving posers, they have a joke of an offensive line and a quarterback who curls up in the fetal position and starts throwing picks like a war vet with PTSD when he gets hit a little. I don't know if Seattle can actually win, and the NFL tournament is COMPLETELY rigged seeing as we, the best seed, have to play the scariest team when this patsy gets to go to another team that I don't respect at all. The real NFC championship game is happening on Saturday in the dome, and I'd pick either victor of Falcons/Packers to CRUSH either victor of Seahawks/Bears.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-9.5) vs New York Jets

Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make proud. And the Jets are a very proud football team. They also talk a lot, which is mind-bogglingly stupid given the track record of what's on the other side. They might actually cover anyway, but I'm still taking the Patriots for a moral-victory blowout. Danny Woodhead is the easiest no-brainer start in Playoff Salary Cap Challenge that I've ever seen.

So that's how it looks to me! I'm gonna try to play 7k-10k hands from now through this weekend, I really hope the game quality improves from a weekend bump, because the games during the work-week have been excruciating.

New COOLEST WIDGET EVER for your blog

2011-01-12T23:21:00.000-08:00

Once again I'd like to thank DoubleFly's great blog for showing me how to keep track of the hits your website gets.

If you click on my stat counter widget, it will show you all kinds of neat data, trends, etc, but I always thought the most interesting bit of data is where all my hits are coming from!

While 97% of my last 500 hits came from places you'd expect, (USA [75.8%], Canada, UK, New Zealand [Hi Donk!], and Germany), it's that last 3% that I think is REALLY cool.

The Estonian Mafia is the next-best represented, and then it's ALLLLLLLLL over the place.

And now, I found THE COOLEST new widget EVER!!! that will put a pretty 3D moving picture of a globe spinning in space with pushpins for where all my hits are from! Most fun of all, you can tilt the globe around and zoom in and stuff.

So yeah, if you subscribe in a reader, be sure to click through and check out the main page for a second. Look at the pretty globe with all my the hits marked out on the right sidebar at the bottom, it's hypnotic!

...Found it on an astronomy blog, obv.

So 'til next time, "on a spinning ball in the middle of space, I'll love [all my readers] from their toes to their face!"

Some college football bowl outcomes that impressed me

2011-01-10T17:53:00.000-08:00

...Along with my MNC pick. You already knew which way I was going with this, I'm a self-proclaimed SEC elitist snob, Cam Newton is listed as bigger than 7 of Oregon's defensive starters, LOL rest of the country when it comes time to take on the SEC, generally, etc. I admit I haven't watched as much of Oregon this year as I have for most #2's in seasons past, once they beat Stanford I just assumed they were going to run the table and play in the national championship, and would lose to whomever came out of the SEC.

Re: Cam Newton, yeah he's a dirty cheater, yeah Auburn (and Bama as well, fwiw) runs a dirty program, none of this is news to me. There's too much money involved and the stakes are too high for shenanigans not to happen, and I'm sure it's way more widespread than the NCAA would like. No link, but I remember reading a great piece that talked about how Alabama schools specifically have even more incentives than most to cheat in college football, with no pro sports. So all that said, I just want to watch good college football, and after it's over Newton will be gone and on to make even more money, and life can go on, without the moralizing histrionics. Whether Auburn's program should be subject to crippling sanctions is a decision I don't want to make, but for whomever's job it is, I'm sure that decision will be made.

So yeah, I'm taking Auburn, lay the points, it doesn't matter, and surprise, the SEC takes down the hardware, again, now and forever.

On to some bowl victories I found impressive:

The Local Football Collectives: I live right smack dab in the middle of the Research Triangle, almost equidistant between Duke, UNC, and NC State. Everyone here keeps saying I have to pick one, and I don't, and usually just yawn when they talk basketball, and laugh at them when they talk football. Duke is still pretty LOL, but UNC and State both had big bowl victories this year, over Tennessee and West Virginia respectively. Both schools have good head coaches in place, implementing good schemes, and I think they're poised to move their programs forward. I think they've both extricated themselves from the ether of mediocrity in the ACC, with young exciting talent, and have at least put themselves in the tier of ACC teams that will be in the thick of things late into November every year, going forward, with Clemson, VTech, and BC.

LOL State of Michigan: I'd rather use this to talk about how awesome the SEC schools are (Alabama and Michigan State) that eviscerated the Michigan schools (Mich. State and U of M). Dan Mullen sure is doing some exciting things down there in Starkville. He could get drunk, walk the streets of Starkville naked, murder a hooker, and be home before sun-up. If anything, Miss. State's emergence will make the Egg Bowl more intriguing, and even though Ole Miss took a step back this year with respect to their expectations, both those schools have athletes to be excited about. It will be interesting to see how long Mullen can keep this momentum going, and just how good his schemes are, because historically the Mississippi state schools simply don't have a long-run chance of competing with the rest of the SEC. They just can't keep up with recruiting, there's no money, and there's no talent in the state. So we'll see how it plays out, but for now I don't really wanna go into Starkville any time soon.

And as for Bama, just _WOW_ . They finally put it all together this year, in a truly complete game in all phases. Thank God half their team is going to the NFL now. And everyone in the Big 10 was so excited about Sparty's break-out year this year, too, highlighting the parity and competitiveness in the Big 10. bwah-hah-hah-hah.

TCU 21, Wisconsin 19: I make fun of the Big 10 a lot, but I have kept a very keen eye on the Wisconsin Badgers this year. I said in the beginning that they have the best O-line in the country, and one thing the Big 10 does well (gasp, even better than the SEC) is churn out elite, corn-fed white boys that can block. Looking at the bowl slate going in, I thought this was going to be the most compelling bowl matchup, and it was a real good game. TCU instantly becomes the class of the Big East, which is fine with me because I've been waiting for a Big East team to take up that mantle (glaring angrily at Pitt, South Florida, Connecticut, lol Syracuse, etc), and nobody ever has for more than 1.5 seasons. That said, I'd still send a 2-loss SEC champion to future BCS championships over an undefeated Big East Champ TCU. Those are my sports biases, and they are what they are, I refuse to apologize for them.

My next college football post will be about how Mark Richt is still the right man to lead the UGA program, and everyone should chill out on calling for his head. The State of the UGA Football Program obviously isn't where we'd like it to be right now, but we still have the best man for the job at the helm, and the list of head football coaches that are better than Richt can be counted on one hand (maybe two, tops, and all those coaches are more entrenched where they're at anyway).

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

2011-01-07T03:51:00.000-08:00

This isn't particularly well-researched, I don't really look at advanced football metrics. I'm prepared to be spectacularly wrong, and I'm not betting any of these, but if I were betting them this is how I'd go.

These are just my impressions from the games I've seen. I always have NFL football on when it's on but I'm not often truly studying and watching the games. Also, any statistic I cite means I read something somewhere and I'm paraphrasing what I think I remember I read.

I just hope the Euros that read this blog (undoubtedly narrowing their eyes every time they see me referring to American Football), but are somewhat interested in following high-level competition, yet don't follow NFL, can still get something from this. Kinda like how I could watch a UEFA game or a big premiership game only loosely having heard of who's really good. If nothing else, it's what to watch for this weekend and what I'm looking at.

Pick listed first, home team in caps

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+10.5) vs New Orleans Saints, Sat 4:30 pm ET

Seahawks cover, though I think it's not impossible they win, but I think New Orleans is winning outright most of the time. Think I heard that the last two WORST playoff teams to host a home game won outright, beware the home dog, etc. Seattle's abomination of a season as a team is well-documented, and this game will be a fascinating case study. I just don't think you can EVER lay double digits profitably on the road in the NFL playoffs, even with a historically-bad NFC West having a representative. I think the Saints defensive reputation is coasting on inertia from insane run-hot with respect to turnovers last year, and I think they're soft against the run. However, as long as Brees, Colston, Meachem, and Bush are on the same football field, I don't think Seattle has ANY answer defensively. I'm banking on home field, special teams (Leon Washington is the 3rd-scariest return man in the NFL to me, behind Cribbs and Hester imo, no numbers to back that up), and I just think I saw Lynch and Forsett showing flashes and running the ball like they give a damn now. But LOL Charlie Whitehurst and Seattle's passing game generally, who knows.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5) vs New York Jets, Sat 8:05pm ET

For the record, this Colts team doesn't smell like the Colts teams of old. All their timeless tragic flaws are in play: injuries to playmakers, can't stop the run, don't run the ball very well. Even 18 hasn't always looked like his old self. Still, I'm just not going against 18, simple as that. I've also written a number of times (and even last year) that I think the Jets generally and Sanchez in particular are overrated. They are a pretty good defense, and the real chess match will be the wacky schemes and exotic blitzes of a good Jets D, and how Manning reacts. It will be an endless adjust-readjust game on that side of the ball, of a way higher level than I or most fans can comprehend or begin to appreciate. On the flip side, I'm rooting for a Sanchez meltdown in a real sick way. If the Jets win, Greene and LT will have big games. But Manning is just so good at home, and that's that.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, Sun 1pm ET

The biggest single reason I'm laying the points on the road here is playoff experience. I was just very impressed with Flacco's run up to the AFC championship game last year, and have admired the strides he's made as a QB. The best part to watch in this game are the two running backs, Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles. I've written enough about Charles in this space, so I'll just say here that if Haley doesn't give Jamaal Charles 25-40 touches of the football, he can't look into the cameras after and say he did everything he could to win the game. Charles is FINALLY getting the credit he deserves as an elite back in this league, and Haley was probably wise to keep him in the 10-20 touches/game range this year. But Haley needs to let the leash off and take a year off of Charles' life for the carries he should get from here on out. I just keep thinking he'll drop a 250-300 total yards from scrimmage game any week now. Not as eloquent a counterpoint to add for Ray Rice, other than he's also REALLY good, and makes their entire offense move more efficiently, short, medium, and long, when he's really on. Conversely, I still don't know what to make of Baltimore's defense this year. The mainstay big scary names are all still there, Ngata, Reed, Suggs, and of course the 3rd-greatest-of-all-time linebacker Ray Lewis (behind the real LT and Butkus, maybe behind Singletary also, I dunno that's close). The rest of the Ravens defense, particularly the secondary, seems like a liability, though. For the remarkable progress the KC organization has made this year, I just think they could still be a year away. No matter what though, we'll see two truly great running backs, and the better one will probably win. Both teams are built to play in close games, and it should be a good one.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-2.5) vs Green Bay Packers, Sunday 4:30 ET

The most intriguing and competitive game this week, toughest to pick, and closest to a flip (so lay the points, obv). This is a fan pick, because if the Falcons play the Saints and then the Eagles and then go to the Superbowl, I ... shit. I truly don't know what I'll do with myself if that happens. My overall level of excitement, enthusiasm, optimism, and support for Michael Vick peaked exactly twice in his Atlanta career: the 55 yard overtime gamewinning scamper in the regular season vs. Minnesota, and watching him run all over the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau Field in the playoffs en route to handing Favre his first cold-weather home playoff loss in his career [GREAT youtube link summarizing that game, RIP Harry Kalas :'( ]. However, the big counterpoint is Aaron Rodgers, and the circumstances of his playoff defeat last year. I think when stuff like that happens to young, talented and hardworking players, it motivates them to work harder. We'll see him at his best on Sunday. I just don't think the Packers can run for short yards when they have to, and Philly's offense is more balanced. The two pass rushes will be good, fun to watch, and whichever is more effective will win the game. The best hope Green Bay has is however they use Clay Matthews in containing and pressuring Vick.

Coming Up

2011-01-07T03:12:00.001-08:00

A million and a half more things to blog about...

- I wanna make at least 1 college football bowl reactions and 1 NFL playoffs preview post before this weekend, ideally before I read Simmons' wild card round picks, [which will probably be up in a couple hours anyway]

- PokerStars Steve, the VIP Manager at Stars, (if you didn't know, he's basically the official liaison between the Highest Echelon of Stars Management with The Informed Poker Community) said that changes to the buy-in structure, if any, will be announced and implemented by the end of January. I have lots of thoughts that could turn into a post, and nobody knows what the changes will be or how they'll affect the games, so in the word[s] of Steve's predecessor ScottyY, "Soon."

- A miscellaneous link dump

- Still trying to finish the Heads Up Bracket I'm running. 3/4 of the final 4 are set and I'm still trying to play my Elite 8 match to get into the Final 4!

- In the last 30 days I've been making strides in the never-ending losing battle of attempting to eat right. Been trying to shop for groceries weekly (instead of bi-annually), save money by eating at home, and eating marginally less bad. I wont say I'm eating GOOD, but it's progress.

- My new, favorite, somewhat healthy, filling, snack I could eat every day and prepare in under 3 minutes: 1 bag of salad/lettuce mix, 1 can of tuna, balsamic vinaigrette [and I generally hate salads.] Dump lettuce into bowl, drain tuna, churn it up a bit with a fork, put into bowl, add dressing. Another good thing for lunches: lentil soup. If you've never had lentils they taste a little chalk-ier and less flavorful than other bean soups, so may take some getting used to and you can't eat it all the time, but it's basically a TON of protein and nothing bad.

- Poker has just been seeming very meh to me lately, and possibly for too many days in a row now. Feels like I've been playing my C+/B- game, wondering if I'm experiencing burnout. As poker has taught me about life, however, just grind through it and come out leaner, meaner, and wiser. I'm going to be doing some more work on my game in the near future. I won't promise I'll do sweats with EVERYone that posts in the comments, but if you'd like to swap sweats with me (and ideally if you're someone I recognize), let me know here or pm me on 2p2.

Also, sound off in the comments if you like this "preview" type of blog (or as always, don't hesitate to suggest or give feedback on any of the formats of any post, obv). It makes me feel less bad about not posting ALL the time, and I think I'm pretty good about getting fresh stuff up in reasonable increments.

About the state of the games in 2011

2011-01-06T01:07:00.001-08:00

So I keep promising that I'm going to make a big, comprehensive post about what I think the state of online poker is, now in 2011, where it's headed, and what it means for me.

But I've had so many random, disconnected thoughts on the (rather amorphous) subject that I haven't been able to organize it all into something that I'm happy with posting.

Lucky for me, JH1 has perfectly, calmly, and rationally expanded upon the state of the games in 2011, and what it means for him, while raising all the uncomfortable questions that are in the backs of ALL our minds.

So if you don't read JH1's blog, you should, so go read it.

2011 Kickoff! ... y = sin (x)

2011-01-03T19:06:00.000-08:00

Another reason I didn't want to post my December or year-end graph is because it's looked positively sinusoidal lately, and that tilts me.

But I'm now up ($3.58!) on the New Year! Hopefully to stay.

This was mostly just a little run bad, and I feel like I'm dealing with it ok.

I'm pleased with the amount of hands I've put in the first 3 days, it's a better pace than last year.

Maybe I'll get 100k hands this month, that would be a really swell start.

One other thing I do want to make as a stated goal is that I really want to play the WSOP main event this year. To be able to do that, I'll have to make and save a lot of money, or make a fair effort at satelliting in.

2010 Recap

2011-01-03T18:53:00.000-08:00

Bleh, I keep putting it off and procrastinating making this post because I have a lot I want to say and no coherent way to put it together.

And I'm procrastinating because I'm seeing the year-end results of lots of friends, and acquaintances, and I have great friends, and they make my meager contribution to this game look paltry in comparison.

So no graphs, but if you know my screen name or do a little digging you can add up my year if you want. I got ~214k VPP's, played somewhere between 500-600k hands, felt like I improved and grew a lot as a player, and made my own modest pile (VERY modest, when I think of how some of my "colleagues" did in 2010! Couldn't be happier for them too, for MOST of them ;)

Going forward, all I know for a fact is I won't be going for SNE. Being able to quit when I'm tilted is the only thing that can keep me level-headed enough to perform at the level I'm already at anyway, haha.

Nominally I'll say my goal is 500k VPP's. Realistically I'd be happy with 300k.

Lots of thoughts coming up about the NFL playoffs (and YOUR number 1 seed Atlanta FALCONS!)

I wish I'd taken the time to jot down some thoughts about the bowl games, we've seen some good ones so far.

I shipped BOTH fantasy football championships I was in, and won my NFL Survivor league. Bubbled fantasy baseball in the league that I ran, but assembled a truly historically great fantasy baseball team in Chip's league, so that was emotionally fulfilling. Votto + Miggy + Bautista = gg HR's, Big Time Timmy Jim + Ubaldo + Lester + Strasburg (I could go on) = gg pitching

So if I'm abdicating making goals for 2011, at least for January we'll shoot for the standard 75k hands, make $5k.

Working on patience

2010-12-30T11:14:00.000-08:00

...And I don't like leaving a graph like that up for too long, anyway :P

Playing a little better, working on my fold button and being able to fold one pair after the flop.

I'll have a year-in-review post coming up soon,

Everyone be safe this year for New Year's! I have a gig AND it entails probably 1.5+ hours of driving, so I will be sticking to water all night.

New worst day ever

2010-12-27T19:57:00.000-08:00

...Ran a lot worse than the EV indicates, like those magical hands where 70% of stacks go in, then they shove on the river and I have like the 4th-8th nuts and can't fold

I even stop-lossed after the FIRST 600. Did the dishes, walked the dog, even took a power-nap (was trying to watch THAT technical institute LOSE to the service academy, but it put me to sleep obv), and came back later. But the BS was waiting for me when I got back, and I hit the stoploss AGAIN.

Pocket aces can't win all in preflop, certainly not against KK, or even 99 (only when they take the solid limp/shove line preflop, obviously)

KQ vs A6 on A-A-4 (overbet donk-shove 80bb at 7 bb on the flop, of course)... lol, JUST LIKE IT'S SUPPOSED TO GET THERE

Raise AQ, 4 way flop KJT. Some donk overbets... um ,the nuts just flats, intending to get it in on a good turn. Turn, oh hey there I still have the nuts, and the donk cuts the flirtatious, teasing foreplay and just shoves... um, all-righty then, I guess I call...

River K,

I simply LOVE it when a plan for the hand comes together... with the king, AND the ten! (offsuit, out of the blinds, etc)

My turned nuts vs turned top two ai on turn...

*bink*

My top set vs bottom set and also a flush draw...

you already know.

...Just one of those days.

I guess it was my turn for THAT day. Sigh.

...to be fair, I made bad plays too. Paid off some river raises vs some impossible nits, I know better than that.

And KK is NEVER good vs vini, EVERYbody knows that, wtf is wrong with me

The bad plays and the bad beats kinda became a vicious cycle I think.

The sick thing is, as ABYSMAL as the games were earlier in the month, I honestly can't recall the games ever being this good as they are in these few days after Christmas. They haven't been this amazing at least since the 40 billionth hand promo, it's like a day-long server restart out there.

Not that it did me any good today.

So I think I'm gonna sleep on this and play some 50 until I feel like I own souls again

Fantasy Football Championship Playoff FINALS...

2010-12-26T11:39:00.001-08:00

...In two separate leagues!

In the 2p2 league, I had the 11th pick out of 12 drafting, and fortunately for me, the guy picking 2nd didn't want his pick and wanted to trade out of it. If I remember correctly, I gave him my 1st and 2nd round picks, the 11th and 14th overall, for his first overall pick and his either 4th or 5th round pick.

It would up being Adrian Peterson for Reggie Wayne AND Randy Moss, and my mid-round selection happened to be Philip Rivers. He drafted well, and I was in the 1st or 2nd spot (by W-L) basically all year. He took down the only guy who's been better than me, and now we're meeting in the finals!

And I'm playing Chip (in a 2-week matchup) in my other league.

So here's hoping my guys run well in football while I get my Sunday grind underway!

A Joe Blogs-style teaser post

2010-12-23T23:56:00.000-08:00

If you claim to be a sports enthusiast, or just enjoy the prose of the hands-down BEST sportswriter, ALIVE, today, you should really check out Joe Posnanski's blog.

Anyway, because he's an OCD loquacious word-smith, and gets too fired up about stuff he's GOING TO write about but hasn't yet, he occasionally drops these little teaser blurb-posts about stuff he intends to write about provided he doesn't forget and lose interest. So I'm gonna do that too:

Upcoming posts:

- Poker's going better lately

- I'm simply the greatest fantasy football player that's ever existed

- Congrats to all my friends and acquaintances that have just made/are now making SNE!

- The State of The Games and poker in 2011 And Beyond, and for me

- Updating the 2010 Micro Full Ring Heads Up Challenge

- and most importantly of all...

Merry Christmas to you and yours!

So much to talk about...

2010-12-20T22:23:00.000-08:00

So I'll start with poker!

I watched a good bit of the Isildur1 match vs ike (Isaac Haxton, philivey2764), it was very entertaining.

If you missed it, The PokerStars Superstar Showdown Challenge pits anybody willing to 4-table 50/100 NL or PLO (10k buy-in) heads up against Isildur1, ike (LONG time CRUSHER of 25/50+, has moderated the high stakes forum on 2p2 forEVER) was the first challenger, and won a little over $40k in 2500 hands.

The match showcased a LOT of the different strategies of HU, all of which are tweaks I've adopted to my game at points, and lotsa stuff to which I've devoted a great deal of thought.

Isildur1 is a 3x'er, ike is a min-raiser. I also adopt both strategies, though I tend to 3x vs fish and minraise vs regs. Ike also varies his c-bet size (2 or 3 bb at 4). I've experimented with varying my c-bet size, with flop texture, opponent type, other variables, etc.

One thing that I found very interesting was that 3 separate times ike took exactly the same line and sizing, and Isildur folded. And separately, in 3bet pots, the first two times ike took another line, Isildur folded. The first 3 times Isildur 4-bet preflop, ike shipped preflop and Isildur folded. It went 300, 1050, 2250, ship, fold. I wouldn't care to guess what either had, but if I'd 4b/folded the first two times, I wouldn't 4b anything again that couldn't call.

I also really love ike's sizing and general line of thinking in 3-bet pots. From a 3x open, ike is making it 10.5 (I usually go 10 or 11), but what I find interesting is that he follows it up with a 14 bb lead. I usually go 11-14. When stacks were 200bb deep he made it 12x and led 16x, which is an adjustment I make too. I think people aren't paying enough attention to sizing and the SPR's that they're comfortable with playing 250bb deep.

So yeah, lots more to talk about, I been running around DJ'ing karaoke and trivia and Christmas parties like my hair's on fire. In the playoffs in 2/3 fantasy football money leagues (facing Chip for the championship after ending Jared's season again, haha!) as well as the 2p2 $150 league. Chip has Adrian Peterson in our league, and I have Adrian Peterson in the 2p2 league, so I'm not exactly sure what to root for.

It's mah burf-day

2010-12-11T14:06:00.000-08:00

Yep, 26 today.

...Never thought I'd make it this far.

Feeling pretty old, certainly in poker terms!

...Guess it's just time to go home and start waiting to die, lol

NFL Week 14 Survivor Pick

2010-12-09T12:56:00.000-08:00

There's maybe 5 or 6 games that come close to a candidate pool of picks, and all but 1 are road teams... YUCK

Philly at Dallas tonight: Andy Reid eleventy-billion and 0 off a bye has 10 days to prepare. Dallas can't be thissss good...

Browns at Bills: Bills tough at home? Browns are playing for... self-respect?

Buccaneers to bounce back at Washington? Eh, maybe... I dunno...

Jacksonville hosting Oakland: One of those things where if both teams regress towards the mean relative to their expectations from last week, edges get smaller. Always stay FAR away from that spot in Eliminator, though I like Jacksonville's new offensive philosophy. They just basically say "LOL whatever we'll win or lose taking a year off of MJD's life for the touches he'll get today."

I do not have the stones to take Chicago to assert themselves at home vs the Patriots.

That's why I'm going with,

*GULP*

the 3-9 Denver Broncos visiting the 3-9 Arizona Cardinals. I'd like to coin the term, of the uncanny ability of an interim coach to win his debut, "The Dead-Cat Bounce." Arizona is down to (I think) their 5th QB this year, undrafted free agent rookie John Skelton (FROM!!! ... ) Fordham.

And I have my victory lap tournament life riding on two West Division teams, AGAIN. No matter what, it won't be boring!

Taking the Jets vs Miami in the little one.

Vaya con Dios, amigos!

2010 uFR Heads Up Tourney!

2010-12-09T08:10:00.001-08:00

I'm running the 2010 heads up tournament challenge, it should be a lot of fun! $10 side pool, $160 for the winner, $80 runner up, and 40 each for making the final 4.

Each match is a best-of-3, your choice between $11.00 or $11.25 deep no blind increase heads up sit-n-gos.

There's lots of bounties and props in this thread, so it should be a lot of fun! ...Hope I run good in my props, haha

Sky is falling, start jobhunting?

2010-12-07T01:48:00.000-08:00

This thread on two plus two seems to have the most informed commentary from the perspective of poker players for what's going on in Washington.

I haven't decided what it all means for me yet, I'll be thinking about it and post my thoughts on that later. We're all just waiting to see what happens at this point in any event.

Long-run, I'm generally optimistic, short-run, who the hell knows what will happen to me and everybody else.

In the meantime, here's the best summary of the situation from that OP, as that thread has a low signal-to-noise ratio:

Originally Posted by NoahSD
Summary (not calling it cliffs cause it ain't so short):

The Congress is currently in a lame duck session. Basically a bunch of Dems got voted out, but there's a 1.5 month window where they're still in control. That window technically lasts until January third, but in practice they usually break for Christmas in mid December unless they're really fighting over stuff. For a number of reasons (very few of which have to do with idealogical differences), the general consensus is that the Dems are much more likely to help us out than the Reps, so most people view this as our best chance to get something done for the next 2 years.

Enter Senator Harry Reid of Nevada. Senator Reid (majority leader of the senate, so quite a powerful dude) is considering attaching a bill to license and regulate online poker (only poker) to other legislation that's almost definitely going to pass. The most likely target is a bill to extend tax cuts that the Dems and Reps have been negotiating over since the election. Nobody's really sure how likely this is to actually happen, as it's likely to be an unpopular move if the Reps decide to make a big deal out of it. However, there's been very little resistance so far. The Dems also seem to be caving pretty hard on the tax cut debate, so the final bill might be very much to the Reps liking and therefore much less likely to garner complaints.

An old draft of the bill has leaked, and we've gotten some inside information from people who work in the senate and PPA members who are negotiating right now. In no particular order, here's a list of things about the bill that are probably true true. (REMEMBER THAT THIS IS BASED ON LEAKS AND AN OLD DRAFT OF A BILL THAT IS STILL A WORK IN PROGRESS AND WON'T NECESSARILY PASS.:

Blackout

The big thing that everyone's upset about is a fifteen month "blackout" period. No site will be able to get licensed until fifteen months after the bill goes into effect. Sites that want to get licensed that are currently serving US players will have to stop during those fifteen months.

It seems that Reid wants this provision for two reasons. First of all, they want some time to set up regulation. Second, they don't want to give sites that have arguably been ignoring US law for years to get a leg up over US companies that have been willing to accept the DoJ's argument that online poker was illegal in the US.

There's a ton of evidence that Stars and FTP will go along with this. So if this passes, there will probably be a fifteenish month period when US players are not able to play on Stars.

Sites that offered sports betting are pretty likely not to bother with this. Sports betting is clearly covered by the wire act, so there's basically no way that anyone who ever offered it could argue that they weren't blatantly violating US law for years. In particular, Bodog is likely to just totally ignore this law if it passes and continue serving US residents throughout the blackout.

For other sites the picture is less clear. I think Cake still serves Washington residents, so that would presumably be an obstacle for them if they wanted to get licensed, and it also suggests that they might be willing to ignore this law. Cereus still serves Washington as well and also obviously has a really sketchy past, so it's unclear if they'll bother to get a license. Cereus also spreads table games, which were already in less of a grey area than poker and will be even more unambiguously illegal after this law is passed, so that's more reason for them to not bother with this. I know nothign about any of the other smaller sites that serve US residents.

The current information from the PPA is that there will be thirty days after the bill passes in which basically nothing happens, then a thirty day grace period in which the sites can still serve Americans (so we get to play for sixty days total), and then another thirty in which the sites have to cash out all Americans. So, there's no reason to worry about getting money out now.

The PPA has been arguing that even though this sucks, it's necessary. They say that the current status quo is getting less and less stable, this is our best chance to fix things, and there's no way we get anything through without a blackout period. Players are split on the issue.. some saying that a fifteen month break (with Bodog and maybe some other sites still around) is worth it for eventualy legality and much softer games and some saying it's not.

A few posters have offered their souls to the devil in exchange for a bill without a blackout. So far, the devil has not commented.

Tax

The tax is pretty damn small. It's 20% on the poker site's revenues (aka rake). This works out to be much less than the current cost of getting around the US government's attempts to prevent Americans from getting money on and off. So, there's no reason to expect rakes to go up as a result of this. There's some reason to expect rakes to go down, but I wouldn't hold your breath if I were you.

(A lot of people are confused by the wording of the bill and think that this is a tax on deposits. It is not a tax on deposits. It's just worded a little funny because lawyers need work just like online poker players need work. It's a tax on revenues and it's quite low.)

The bill also has some provisions to make sure that poker players pay taxes on their winnings. You should pay your taxes anyway, so nobody here will have any sympathy for you if you have a problem with that.

No Penalty for Sites Currently Facing US Players

Stars and FTP come out smelling like roses. An old version of the bill (actually the one that leaked) said that they'd be penalized for facing the US market when it was arguably illegal. People who are in the know say that that has been removed.

No Euros for a While

Non-US players won't be allowed to play on US-licensed sites. So that would be something like the equivalent of Stars.fr and FTP.fr. The version of the bill that I have says that three years after the blackout (so over four years from now), they might be allowed in if some bureaucrats decide to let them in.

State-by-State Crap

There is no way that the federal government will force states to make online gambling legal. That's arguably unconstitutional, and it's just not something any senator would do. So, states have to have some way to make a choice about whether or not they want to participate. How exactly they are allowed to make that choice is pretty crucial.

The old draft of the bill that I have says that only states that already allow commercial poker in some form ("at least" California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) would be involved automatically. The others would have to send a letter from their governor before the end of 2011 to be included. That would not be good as a lot of governors would choose not to send such a letter, preferring to just stay out of the issue.

Fortunately, the PPA has been saying that this has been improved. The best-case scenario is one in which all states are automatically involved and they can only get out if the state legislatures (which in most states have a lot of trouble getting anything done) vote to opt them out. The PPA has been saying that something like this is likely to be in the final bill, so that's pretty good for us.

21+

The bill is 21+. This probably isn't gonna change. Of course, with the fifteen month blackout, this will only really affect people who are younger than like 19.5ish.

Double Supernova!

2010-12-05T09:52:00.001-08:00

I hit 200k VPP's yesterday! Getting that milestone bonus sure is nice, and I withdrew some more as well.

Since I'm basically done with my long-term goals for the year, and since the games seem kinda lame in December, I'm gonna completely re-work my goals for December. I withdrew a lot of my roll for the holidays, down to a comfortable roll for 50NL, and I'm gonna be there for mostly the rest of this year.

I'll make my goals 50k hands at 50NL, and winning $2k, and ready to hit the ground running again at 100NL in 2011!

...I may still play some at 100 on weekends or if the games look good, but I think this will be good for me and my game. When I realize that I'm always gritting my teeth when I'm grinding, when the game seems to be moving too fast, and if I say to myself "whatever, I call" or whatever, you fuck-stain, I raise" too many times in a session, I need to take a step back, slow things down, and simplify the game.

Lately I have been playing better and running MUCH better, so that's encouraging.

It'll be nice to stop being an FPP pro, and return to fundamentals, and play poker... JUST to win money at poker!

NFL Wk 13 Survivor

2010-12-02T10:09:00.000-08:00

I'm really excited for the two AFC Armageddon Night Games this week! And we have another NFC South Driver's Seat game at Tampa this week as well.

But staying perfect in Survivor is getting exponentially harder as each week goes by.

I can narrow down my pick this week to 4 candidates:

Philadelphia vs Houston tonight: It is nice getting a pick out of the way on Thursday and having all day Sunday to get ready for next week's picks. What I worry about is that if both these teams regress to the mean, Philly might not be as good as we think ... and if Houston is destined for eternal mediocrity and 8-8 forever under Kubiak and Schaub, then they're two games behind and need to kick it up. Short weeks favor the offense, and Andre Johnson didn't get suspended. Kinda like how bad baseball teams play better after a big bench-clearing brawl, I'm staying away.

Chicago at Detroit: Worrisome trap game potential, and I really HATE taking road teams. Chicago is pretty good and a well-balanced team, but I can't forget that week 3 nightmare on the O-line, and I worry that that may play to Detroit's defensive strength, N. Suh.

Minnesota vs Buffalo: Buffalo has played better of late, and even looks to be somewhat competent on offense. I just don't feel good about the Vikings' motivations for this game. If they're down 8 at home with 11 mins left in the 4th quarter, tell me, what's lighting a fire under them to go out and win? I don't want to take a team that'd be as likely to pack it in.

Seattle vs Carolina: So, I've narrowed it down to taking the team on a 2-game losing streak. I have my bottom 5 now as: 32) Carolina, 31) Buffalo, 30) Denver, 29) Detroit, 28) Arizona. I don't think Carolina could go on the road and win ANYwhere, let alone a tough venue like Qwest. Most of all, I'm picking this game because these games do matter to Seattle, and they're absolutely playing for a playoff spot.

I worry that Carolina may have found something with Mike Goodson. Also, I never forget that Steve Smith always has his HUGEST games at EXACTLY the worst times for my Falcons fan rooting interest AND my fantasy football rooting interests.

But in this year of Auburn being so good, make sure you run out and grab Ben Obomanu if you need WR help in fantasy this week.

November Recap/December Goals

2010-11-30T23:31:00.000-08:00

Yeah, November didn't go so hot.

It's months like these that make me realize why bad nit-reg full ring grinders are so grumpy all the time. I vow to quit poker before I ever become THAT, however. Not being that is a huge part of my self-identity in poker.

I ran pretty bad, being down almost 15 BI in all-in EV, but I try not to let that cause me to play worse.

I haven't played great either. To give myself a letter grade for my play for the past month, with A+ being playing my focused, not tilted very best, as consistently as is reasonably possible, I'd give myself a D+/C-. Still being too aggro in dumb spots, a little spewy pf, loosey-goosey and too light vs fish, all the places where my standard trouble spots pop up.

So let's see how I did with my goals for this month:

Hit the 200k VPP Milestone before Thanksgiving: FAIL, almost-pass. I'm at 197,804 VPP's. So getting that in the next few days will be encouraging, but still. Missed the date I was trying to hit.

Play 75k hands: FAIL. I'm actually satisfied with my volume in November. I didn't think I was going to get to 75k anyway, since I missed a weekend for vacation. And it's really hard to want to wake up and put in volume when the site is smashing you in the face with a shovel every time you sign on. ...Feels that way sometimes anyway, lol

Make $5k: LOL FAIL. Heh heh heh, moooooooooooving right along...

Win money at showdown: TRULY EPIC FAIL. When I'm PLAYING bad, I tend to get too loose and too aggressive, and lose my fold button preflop. When I'm RUNNING bad, the blue line just plummets. Can't control the run-bad, but I need to fix the problems from play-bad.

I get the syndrome of "win all the small pots, and lose all the big ones." There were definitely some tilted sessions, but I really don't think I played all that bad too much. The one thing that seems out of whack to my memory is I can't remember the last time I semi-bluffed a stack all in with tons of outs and hit. I think I've missed more than my share of combo draws, and since I generally play draws aggressively, that adds up a lot. And it adds up in blue line, not red line, which is why those lines look so funky. And the blue-line pots are the BIG pots.

Stick to my 6BI stoploss: PASS, in spirit, but not literally, if I were to be so negative as to call it a clean sweep of failure for my goals. I hit the stoploss 3 times this month, and didn't tilt further or go over. However, for the stoploss this week, I was hovering around -550 for several orbits on all my tables, sighed as I was getting ready to quit, and then lost like a $300 pot. I did insta-quit, but I finished the day actually down SEVEN buyins, if we're getting technical.

I'm making myself finish the last 2k+ VPP's at 50NL as pennance. At least until I feel like my head is on straight again.

Really though, I'm at peace and not too terribly upset with myself just because of these poor results. I understand variance, and a month like this probably isn't more than 1 or 2 standard deviations below what I could expect at any time. To a very large extent we're really all just slaves to how we run, in the short term, because the long term is longer than we can conceive in meaningful terms.

Anyway, all my best heaters have come after my worst downswings, and stretches in poker. It's all one loooooooooong session anyway. I'm feeling confident and assured in my game, and I'm thinking a hockey-stick graph in December is plausible.

So I'm gonna set my goals even higher in December!

[ ] Make $6k
[ ] Play 75k hands
[ ] Win money at showdown
[ ] Stick to my 6 BI stoploss

Poker...

2010-11-29T08:06:00.001-08:00

...has been real rough for me this month. I'm running bad, but not dwelling too much on that, because I don't think I've been playing particularly well either.

Anyway, I'll post the graph in all it's gory detail at the end of the month.

Probably gonna put in a few sessions at 50 to get my head on straight.

I'm a little over 3k VPP's away from the 200k milestone, so that's a relief!

Coming off another stoploss today though, it sure is lame to limp to the finish as an FPP pro for a whole month.

Happy Thanksgiving, Everybody!

2010-11-25T00:40:00.000-08:00

Best wishes to you and yours for Thanksgiving today.

For my continued victory lap around NFL Survivor:

In NFL Week 12, I think it's kind of close between 2 teams that are available to me: NYJ at home vs CIN, and CLE at home vs CAR. I think both would be fine picks and I'd be okay with going with either of them, I guess I just think that NYJ is a stronger team, and while Carolina is the weaker opponent, I'd rather go with a team I expect to make hay into the post-season.

So I'll be taking the Jets in the victory lap pool, and the Browns in the little busto pool, and feel as fine as I can feel about them both.

Haven't even looked at week 13 yet, so I don't really have a plan for the rest of the year, but I tell ya looking up and down the slate week in week out with more and more teams unavailable to me is getting TOUGH.

The best teams I haven't picked yet are Philly and Tampa Bay. I have a lotttttt of teams in that .500 or a couple games below, that ether of mediocrity and inconsistency, most of whom I wouldn't feel great about AT ALL.

So we'll see! Get those fantasy lineups set.

For college football, I'm looking forward to an extraordinarily exciting weekend of games. Mark it down, I like Alabama over Auburn in The Apocalyptic Game That Ends Time, the Iron Bowl. Auburn has an amazing offense, but I think if anyone can scheme to stop it, Saban and the brilliant control of his linebackers might. Auburn's secondary is soffffft, Julio Jones and the reigning Heisman Mark Ingram will run wild. Auburn gives up something around 5.3 yards per play on defense, which is a full yard over most national champions of the past decade. Don't get me wrong, they're still a good team. Their differential is fine because their offensive YPP is over 7, something only 2 national champions have had in the past decade.

...Gonna be a knock down drag out SEC slobberknocker either way. So I like Alabama. Just got a feeling.

...And I hope we grind the bumblebees from that technical institute up the road into a fine paste, of course

Un-stuck in November!

2010-11-18T19:42:00.001-08:00

...For the moment, anyway

Little bit of everything, some good play, some bad play, some run bad (got 1-outered AI on the turn today, cool), some run good (hit 2-outer AI on flop, and that pot was bigger!), etc etc

So since I'm a full fledged FPP pro through the first 2/3 of the month, let's hope the games get really good around the Thanksgiving Holiday as they've been known to do.

Still trying to stay on pace for hitting the 200k milestone before Thanksgiving, less than 11k VPP's to go!

NFL wk 11 and College Football

2010-11-18T15:29:00.000-08:00

- So my still-perfect suicide pool slate looks pretty tough. When I looked at the docket, with what I could pick, the 3 best possible bets seemed to be San Diego (off a bye) vs Denver, Tennessee vs Washington, or New York Jets vs Houston. My first impulse was to go with San Diego, and I could talk myself in and out of circles forever about the relative merits of each matchup. So I'm gonna go with my gut and my first impulse and ride it out.

My MVP ballot at the moment looks like: 1) Michael Vick 2) Philip Rivers 3) Peyton Manning. I don't feel solid enough to make a fantasy football start/sit decision on this yet, but Malcom Floyd is supposed to be back. Considering Rivers just made Seyi Ajeritutu fantasy relevant in one week, and everyone else he's been throwing to are an injury recovery away from the arena league, I'll go with the Chargers at home off a bye. The Chiefs are stubbing their toe within their division, and it's wide open down the home stretch. Mike Tolbert will be licking his chops at the run defense that Darren McFadden shredded.

Nagging fears of the aliens that kidnapped Kyle Orton and replaced him with someone good linger at the back of my mind, though...

- That UGA/Auburn game was tough. Those 3 cheap shots Nick Fairley threw on our quarterback were loathsome. We should have just thrown it to AJ Green on every down, Auburn had no answer for him and literally could not stop him all game. Auburn's yards/play numbers on defense don't look as impressive as most "dominant #1's" do, although they obv control their own destiny.

- As a UGA fan I'm reading our best case for bowl scenarios is if we win out and get a bid to restore our rivalry with Clemson in the Music City Bowl. Which would be pretty fun, considering. In such a year of transition, as long as Mark Richt stays steady at the helm, and Aaron Murray continues the pace of his development curve as a starting SEC QB, he might go down as the best QB in UGA history! Richt has succeeded with the QB's he's had his hands on throughout every level of his coaching legacy.

- I have it as a two-horse race in the Bronco Nagursky Award for the most outstanding defensive player in college football: 1) Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers, and 2) Georgia DE Justin Houston. Houston leads the SEC in sacks, Bowers leads the nation in sacks. As a UGA homer I obviously want Justin to win, because he's been a revelation for us and a proud addition to the legacy of "D-Line U." I first saw Bowers play at the Under Armor high school seniors game (I think) 4 years ago, where he was the top-rated player, and he was utterly amazing. Non-stop motor, getting after it and making his presence felt on every down. Clemson uses him on both sides of the line, and he's a nightmare that has to be accounted for on every play. I think he's got a chance to be a truly special player at this level and on Sundays.

- I'm taking Pittsburgh at home vs Oakland in my little pool (that has 3 missed picks already).

About some video games

2010-11-17T16:13:00.000-08:00

So on my trip to Atlanta to see my buddies, since we're all pathologically competitive psychos, the drinking and gambling on Xbox/PS3 games marathon was in full swing.

Final Verdict on Call of Duty: Black Ops ... meh, I'm underwhelmed. In terms of gameplay, it's basically the exact same as Modern Warfare (which I found enjoyable), and new maps are cool (but I fkn HATE that suburban residential map with the mannequins and the 2 story wood back porch, that map is SPAWN TRAP HELL). The RC car is comically pathetic, and it makes the game lose some of the immersion factor for me, which was a huge part of what I liked about Modern Warfare, and the UAV's, airstrikes, choppers, etc.

As each installment of the Halo series came out, they progressively and innovatively moved first-person shooters forward, advanced gameplay, tweaked weapons and still stayed true to itself (up until Reach and ODST, let's just pretend those never happened).

Sad to think that both Bungie and Infinity Ward/whoever the hell made Black Ops have both reached a saturation that they just don't care anymore about innovating and will just repackage and pump out the same old thing with a new cover.

FIFA 2010: Very enjoyable to play with lots of people taking turns with matches. Scoring is critically controlled by how well you play with your strikers and two forward-most players, and defense, off the ball movement, anticipation, and first touch are very important to gameplay ... which is a ton like real soccer! Lots of fun exploring the rosters of the club level teams all over Europe, it helps to know who your best players are and use them effectively.

For some reason I suck at getting Xavi involved as either Barcelona or the Spanish national team. Dude is the best midfielder ALIVE in real life, the fulcrum of the midfield, and I can't find ways to utilize him. I'm much better with some of the nasty forwards in the game: Drogba, Rooney, C. Ronaldo, D. Villa, F. Torres, etc.

Fight Night: Round 3 is just an all-time classic that I can play vs. anybody for hours. Joe Tessitore's announcing makes it so much more epic, and I love the level of control that dictates how you can choose your style, and exploit different opponent's styles. The weight classes makes fights play out completely differently, and each individual will adopt their own patterns that interplay dynamically.

And of course the GOAT video game for me is Halo 3, the greatest of all time. When I was playing regularly I got up to level 40 colonel myself at team slayer, respectable showings in other gametypes too, but MAN am I off my touch, because Sean and Boli mopped the floor with me, I regret to say.

I finally got to play Blackout and Cold Storage (remakes of earlier Halo maps Lockout and Chill Out), which was postively enrapturing for an enthusiast of the triology such as myself. But I still got it with the shotguns, grenades, battle rifles, and sniping ... even on quarter screens, bitches!

Ship the suicide pool!

2010-11-15T16:29:00.000-08:00

So I get back home to North Carolina right when the Giants were finishing off the Cowboys, and...

With 48 runners for $25, I chopped El Nino's suicide pool for $600 apiece, with Toerazor! He had Tampa Bay, my Indy held, and the Giants knocked the other 4 people out!

Of course I'm still going to keep picking it out and try to make it a perfect year!

...but this week is really hard. I'm torn between Titans vs Redskins, Jets vs Texans, and Chargers vs Broncos on Monday night. I'll make up my mind later, right now I have it down as Chargers so I won't forget.

NFL Week 10 Suicide Pick

2010-11-11T09:34:00.000-08:00

Last week, myself and 2 others had Atlanta, two people had Minnesota, and one person had the New York Jets. I was COUNTING MY MONEY when Atlanta held, and both the other teams were down lots late in the 4th quarter, but they BOTH pulled it out in OT, sooooooooo lame.

So there's still 6 of us left this week.

Luckily for me, everyone else already took Indy in week 5 over KC, and I didn't.

So I've got Indy, at home, with Peyton coming off a loss, facing the Bengals coming off a short week, and nobody else will!

...AND because there's a Thursday game this week, picks have to be in by tonight, so there's some added overlay if someone else forgets. It's not strictly an angle, because the rules have been public and in play all season. But I'm certainly not above letting everyone else choke it away to claim victory!

Poker-wise, still running somewhat bad, playing so-so... whatever. Thank God for FPP's.

Fortunately I'm going out of town this weekend, visiting friends in Atlanta. It'll be the first weekend I haven't grinded in quite a while. Hopefully some time away from the tables will refresh me, clear my head, and I'll come back and crush next week!

Bleh

2010-11-05T10:38:00.000-07:00

10k hands into November, and I'm already $1k below EV and down 17ish BI total. I AM however, stop-lossing like a pro, and generally playing well, I think, just running real bad.

Lost about 5 BI's worth of money today, by getting it in at the moment that I was holding the literal nuts. Aces preflop twice, and my flopped straight couldn't hold vs the flopped set for a 545bb pot.

So whatever. I do think I'm playing ok, so I'm just gonna cheerfully grind out of it.

What worries me is how awful the tables have looked in the last week. I even played at 50 one day this week because I was just looking at the 100 lobby and was like, "ok screw this I can find something better to do with my time here today."

I guess lots of people are putting in the hands to hit their numbers for the year.

Well here's hoping the Main Event Final Table next week, and the new tourney series Stars is promoting, brings some fresh deposits back!

Thanks to frosty012's great blog for reminding me of this, and you should all check out his blog anyway...

Just remember no matter HOW bad you're running right now, you still won't feel as bad as this guy.

That was for almost 30% of the chips in play, with 5 more to go til the November 9. Still the biggest pot played in the 2010 World Series (to date, of course that'll change on Tuesday).

Breakeven months, even 2 months or more, can't compare to THAT feeling. That's seriously my biggest poker nightmare acted out right there.

So on that note, hope I and everybody runs better this weekend than they did this week!

Week 9 NFL Survivor

2010-11-03T23:33:00.000-07:00

I've been looking ahead at the schedule and I feel pretty strongly about lots of picks in the upcoming weeks.

Still alive with 6 left in the $25 pool!

Already picked for me are (LOL picked 5/7 games against Buffalo):
New York Giants
Green Bay Packers
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
Jacksonville
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Kansas City

I'm taking Atlanta at home vs Tampa Bay in this one, and New England on the road vs Cleveland in the little one (that pool's already busto, playing for pride now).

I really hope lots of people pick the Jets and they lose at Detroit. I don't feel great taking The Prohibitive Road Favorite in the little with with NWE over CLE, but the Lions could potentially be frisky at home, especially on D, and I still maintain that Stafford is a better QB than Sanchez.

I'm fully prepared for the possibility that Tampa Bay is actually quite good, Josh Freeman Just Wins Games, etc etc. So this week will either affirm my confidence in my team at home, or lose the NFC South driver's seat, and crush my fantasy, monetary, and fan rooting interests in one fell swoop.

So we'll see. Gotta go with what you believe!

In week 10, I'll be taking the Colts at home vs the Bengals in the big one, and Tampa Bay at home vs. Carolina in the little one.

Now we just need to stick to the plan and hold through this week!

October Recap/November Goals

2010-10-31T22:14:00.001-07:00

From last month's goals:

[x] Play 75k+ hands

[ ] Make $5k+

[x] Win Money At Showdown

[ :-/ ] Don't 4b/call 77 for 100bb preflop vs 14/11's

[x] STRICT 6-buyin session stop/loss. If I lose 6 buyins, I HAVE to close everything and go do something else for at least 30 minutes.

...Made 4.5 stop-loss quits, so I'm pretty proud about that. Well, proud that I actually QUIT instead of steaming through a few more buyins. New goal for this year is never lose $1k in a day again, I hate that feeling.

Still, while I'm pleased with the volume I put in, I think at least 20% of those hands were with my "B" game or worse. Must work on that. I think I'm gonna give the Table Ninja trial a whirl.

I finished October a hair shy of 30k VPP's, which puts me over the 175k mark! Gonna get to 200, but I'm not gonna grit my teeth going for 300 with the last-minute supernovas and stuff.

I'm going on a trip in a few weekends to Atlanta, so that'll be one less weekend I'm grinding for.

So let's keep my November goals simple:

[ ] Play 75k+ hands
[ ] Make $5k+
[ ] Win Money At Showdown
[ ] Hit the 200k VPP milestone before Thanksgiving
[ ] Stick to my 6 BI stoploss

Fantasy Basketball, NFL Survivor, WLOCP!

2010-10-30T10:21:00.000-07:00

I'm running a 12-team basketball league with some people in SSFR, I really like my team:

PG Steve Nash
SG Terance Williams
G Russell Westbrook
SF Trevor Ariza
PF Dirk Nowitzki
C Marcus Camby
F Paul Millsap
UTIL Carl Landry
UTIL Serge Ibaka
UTIL JaVale McGee

and 3 bench point guards, D.J. Augustin, Jrue Holliday, and Goran Dragic.

I like that I have 3 PG's and 3 bigs to stream in and out of UTIL.

- NFL Survivor: Seven people left in Week 8! I have a feeling lots of people will pick KC, but I'm taking them as well. In the little one I'm taking Detroit at home vs Washington.

Matt Stafford is supposed to make his return to Detroit, and The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is kicking off in a couple hours!

For the uninitiated, The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is the Georgia/Florida game. It's the biggest game of the year every year for UGA and it's the one I want to win the most (because we usually don't).

So suffice it to say, it's a big weekend of rooting interest for UGA ties!

According to everything I've read, all signs point to the Dawgs, but we Georgia fans know historically that this is when we prepare for the cartoon-anvil to drop on our heads... so we'll see.

It ought to be a great game no matter what!

See if you can spot the hands on deep tables

2010-10-27T19:24:00.001-07:00

...lol

On the one hand, I can never recall having 850bb all in 3-ways on the turn, and have both opponents COMPLETELY dead, that was cool! RIO with flushes, kids!

I was pretty wide-eyed when it was ship/call to me staring at that 3rd spade turn, dontpairtheboarddontpairtheboard... Oh. Haha. Sweet!

That was a pretty amazing table that helps reaffirm my faith in the game. 61/5 fish ran $250 up to over 2k at one point... busting regs, chatting, having fun, yukking it up.

On the other hand, when he overbet-donk/called raises on 2 streets and backdoored the idiot end for 700sh bb, I was less enamored with him.

He still left with 7-something, and if he doesn't win big sometimes, there's no game.

Pretty nice heater everywhere else today on the regular tables, too. Even made the 2nd royal of the month.

...So that keeps my love/hate relationship with deep tables on the ratio it's at.

Some Nifty, Free Links

2010-10-26T14:55:00.000-07:00

The Ad-Block plug-in for Google Chrome. I prefer chrome over firefox just because I think google is one of the neatest companies ever, let alone their de-facto role as the leading Steward of The Internet. It doesn't matter which web browser you use, as long as you use anything BUT Internet Explorer. So now I no longer see hot Christian singles in MY area on facebook, no more ESPN surveys, and no more "fewer OMG's per page!" on 2p2!

An app that synchs the "warmth" of colors on your monitor to how bright the sun is now, reducing eye strain and helping you sleep better. DJ'ing til all hours of the night, plus after-parties with loose-moral'ed women doesn't help, but with graveyard-shift poker sessions also, my sleep schedule sucks and is downright unhealthy. When I play at night, I keep all the lights on, because I can't think very well in the dark. Unsurprisingly, I can never get to sleep after, when the sun starts coming up. Maybe this is just a crock, or maybe I can trick myself with the placebo effect. But it looks cool and I'm giving it a try, will update.

...

Hello.

Would, You, Like, To, Play, A, Game?

A fun flash game guaranteed to cure tilt. I find the goofy music soothing, and the macabre, bullet splatter-sound and death animation is sooooooo sickeningly gratifying. I also love games dealing with vector physics. Kinda like billiards.

A more challenging game that will suck you in for hours until you beat it, if you're like me. I love poker so much because I'm pathologically competitive, and consider myself a passionate enthusiast of all types of games ... against opponents that I vanquish and bathe in their blood, and against myself, ever transcending and outshining my own abilities for the joy of a challenge bested. Another A+ with the soothing, goofy music. I also really like simple games.

Sorry about yesterday's post

2010-10-24T22:09:00.001-07:00

...guess I was more tilted than I thought.

Made a slight comeback today, cashed a couple tournaments for nothing special, played a bunch of cash game hands, still ran kinda bad but whatever.

I know nobody likes reading bad beats and rage-posts so I'll try not to do that. It's just how this month has been going, 25 BI swings up and down, non-stop.

And I feel good that I'm playing more volume lately than I normally do, but when I look at the graph it's just frustrating.

Maybe I should cut down tables.

In any event, the lesson is, I'm glad I'm sticking to stop-losses, because with my higher-variance playing style, and my usually-good-but-not-perfect emotional control, it's a necessary, professional decision I have to make.

doomswitch

2010-10-24T00:18:00.001-07:00

I almost quit at the -600 stoploss,

but the tables were so good I thought I needed to keep playing

As I was getting all my tables started, cb4mvp sat me HU on a few tables. He then proceeds to god-mode me in every possible spot. Missed every time I semibluffed juicy holdings aggressively. 4-flush 4-straight runout after check/raise-barrelling sets. TT > JJ aipf. JJ > AKs aipf. etc etc etc

The tables really were good, so I told him I had to quit him because I had too many other tables up.

All the fish proceed to CAAAAAAAAAAAAA-RUSHHHHHHHHHHHHHH me in every possible opportunity. Turning miracles, rivering miracles, 3-bet the SAME FISH with dominating cards THREE TIMES and lose all 3, AA vs KK all in on the flop, turn K, etc etc etc.

Check how I'm doing, oh hey wow it's time to stop-loss.

but the tables are sooooooooo good right now!

Let's just play a little longer and see if we can make a rally.

So I open QQ. Ronfar 3-bets IP to 12x. whatever, bro, that's probably a completely standard fold.

Fish opens, I flat 66, chuckk squeezes OOP. whatever dude, I FOLD

I open AQs, fish calls, ariolis squeezes OOP. WHAT THE FUCK. FOLDDDDDDDDDDDD!!!

someone opens, fish calls, someone else calls, chuckk squeezes, AGAIN

GOD FUCKING DAMMIT

fuck you man, I call

flop top pair AND a backdoor NFD!

...definitely not folding.

ZOMG! Surprise! ...The supernova-elite-that's-so-tight-he-could-swallow-charcoal-and-shit-out-a-diamond, had KK.

fucking fuck FUCK

...ok, maybe I'm tilting now.

So that's 4 stop-losses this month... It REALLY sucks but I know it's better than the alternative.

This was all after midnight, so I'm just gonna take a little nap now, and hope my doomswitch does too, and doesn't carry over to the rest of Sunday.

Some random thoughts for today

2010-10-22T15:43:00.001-07:00

- If I think a bad, LAGgy reg is pretty spewy blind vs. blind...

...that doesn't mean the correct adjustment is to spew wider-than-normal at him when it's folded to us in the blinds.

- You can REALLY mess with a reg's head playing HU if you fold to the first 4 or 5 three-bets, but when you defend for the first time, pick a hand like 74s

- NFL suicide pick: yeah it's pretty clearly Baltimore vs Buffalo at home. If you can't take Baltimore then I guess it sucks for you. I'm 0-2 in my last two picks in the little pool, but still alive and taking the Ravens in the big one.

- I'm running a $100 fantasy basketball league with some other SSFR'ers! It's gonna be fun, I'm excited for how the league is shaping up. We still have a couple spots open if any readers wants to be in a $100 fantasy basketball league with us.

- When I just-DJ or do trivia, I get bored and wish that I had more karaoke gigs, because karaoke's the most fun to work. I've had a bunch of karaoke shows in the past few weeks, and now I'm losing my voice.

Oh well, no rest for the never-weary! Back at it again tonight and tomorrow, it's a tough job but someone's gotta do it! And it IS still the most fun out of all the gigs I work.

THE Top 10 Stars NL100 Regs Post

2010-10-16T21:13:00.000-07:00

Criteria: 40% results, 60% how difficult I personally think this player is to play against. That's my catch-all for "But PTR has Player X >>> Player Y!!"-based arguments.

Ego- and emotionally-driven comments, however, are of course fully encouraged.

In each players' remarks, I am attempting to make a qualitative (and complimentary) personalized observation about each player's game. I consider each of these at least a colleague and at most a friend, so I am not attempting to invite discussion on reads, or how to [attempt to, lol gl] exploit any of these players.

10 Kfuse

Hasn't been around 100 TOO too much in the past few months, because he does win higher. But when Kfuse is playing 100, don't forget that he ABSOLUTELY belongs on this list: the guy can flat-out play. He's much better than above-average winning regs, I can't really explain how or why, but you wouldn't know it unless you pay close attention. The only time I EVER stacked him, I flopped the nut boat, and he turned and rivered the 2nd-nut boat, AND I wouldn't have gotten stacks in unless I took exactly the line I took on all 4 streets.

9 gutter23

SSNL's own TV pro, you might remember gutter from the 2010 World Series, where he doubles up Thuoy Duan with the 2nd-place pair + 2nd-place GUTTER! (...ldo). An expert post-flop player, and especially good at over-setting or over-flushing me :P Don't mess with him on the chess tables either, he just knows that D2-D4 NOW WHAT? OH, LOL GAME OVER!-opening better than you do.

8 cb4mvp

Could be higher on this list, because I think he's much tougher to play against than some higher-volume players ahead of him. Without getting TOO specific, all I'll say is, LOL flop aggression factor AND frequency in a general sort of way. Not only does this make him extraordinarily difficult to play against, especially OOP, but we both know that if we fully open it up like we do against fish or some other regs, then one way or another, one or the other of us [usually me] will assuredly wind up wamboozled.

7 e306

True Pro's pro. Das German Graveyard-Shift Grinder from Gelsenkirchen. One of the things that he does best, which interests me because it's something I think I do worst, is making disciplined post-flop folds. Wish I had something nicer to say about him other than "he folds like a champion," but the dude simply NEVER makes big mistakes in big pots.

6 helen_gamble

I fully endorse referring to it in the indefinite "it" until it positively affirms its gender. Very active heads-up player, to say the least. At some point, you just have to look at it's results and say that it simply HAS to be doing something more than drilling EVERY flop in EVERY 3-bet pot ... EVERY time ... in and out of position, with and without initiative.

5 Ronfar3

True Pro's pro. When I first started shot-taking into 100 and attempting to stick earlier this year, I learned VERY quickly not to mess with Ronfar, EVER, if he declares his interest in THIS pot isolating THAT fish right there, and he doesn't care what I think I have at this moment in time. Without question, everyone's favorite PTR commenter. Laugh at the regs to whom he preaches truth, but beware the inevitability of the "Countdown to busto" death-certainty. I haven't got a comment yet, and not for lack of opportunity (with the many dumb things I do hourly), but if I ever do something dumb enough to be comment-worthy, I'd proudly brandish it as a badge and a curse.

4 jrockhaf

Truest of Pro's pros. If you want to put him (or anybody else on this list) as your legit #1, then I don't have a problem with it. He did one thing I found peculiar in a hand vs me 6 months ago, I was completely confused and got a stack in very bad, but sucked out. He did that same peculiar thing to me in an exactly similar spot one month ago, and I remembered, was still completely confused and got a stack in very bad again, and DIDN'T suck out. Then I saw him do it vs someone else last week, and laughed my head off as he inevitably stacked him. Jrock is where all the money goes to die at 100.

3

natisfinest

My favorite thing about The Finest is that he clearly both has and acts on extraordinarily-specific reads for individual regs. An exceptional hand-reader, and out of a lot of other awesome players on this list, I think he does the best job of working off the image... and you DIDN'T know that. Sometimes he'll turn over the strangest cards at showdown [but only if they hit HARD], and you'll think "How can he POSSIBLY be playing those types of hands from THERE with his stats?" I can only conclude that he picks his spots extremely selectively and vs extremely specific opponent-types... Yet you'll never see him turn over speculative hands if they've missed. I caught him triple-barrelling air exactly ONCE, but I've probably paid off between 3-5 of his river check/shoves (and got shown the nuts each time, obv). One time I reverse-owned him and checked back the nut flush on a river board pair, and was correct. I considered it a moral victory to ONLY lose a $60ish pot to him that time.

2

JimboNYY24

He clearly agrees with me that heads up no-limit is indubitably the most masculine and erotic form of poker. My worst enemy on PTR, and the runaway winner on my "toughest to play against" spectrum. Maybe I'm just a stubborn/bad (um, head-up) table-selector, but I take the approach from Ender's Game: "Only the enemy tells you where he is strong and you are weak. There is no teacher but the enemy." ...And I've made enough off of the next 4 regs or fish to join in with us to keep sitting him HU to pay for some education. What irks me is that by now (and we have around 5k+ hands of HU together), I get away with even LESS than I did when I was just spewing to him before, because he pretty much knows EXACTLY what I'm repping at all times, and what my frequency is for getting out of line. Yup, that's Mr. "HU at FR Tables til it fills" Jimbo, just a-min-raising his way away to that absurd winrate.

...

And The Number 1 Stars NL100 Reg is...

...

of course,

...

/7e34kuH !!!

...A good excuse to make this place a little easier on the eyeballs.

Simply the best and most technically, fundamentally sound poker player I have ever played against.

+ basically everything I said about natis, but greater in both scope and magnitude. Which I intend as the best poker thing I can say about them both.

I've never seen him tilt, I can't ever recall seeing him get a stack in bad. The worst he's ever gotten it in vs me was with the NFD + 2 overs on the flop; I happened to have aces, but even before it came, I knew it was coming.

...Because vini's the best. The End.

I had a tough time leaving off, but couldn't bump Kfuse for: ehafner, ralphd27, Marshall, chickencross, rodjeur1982, and I'm sure I'm forgetting lots more.

So to everybody I'm certainly forgetting, or if you think your placement is a LOUD silent omission,

then I guess I just think you suck and you should play me heads up :P

Quick Blogroll Shout-out

2010-10-15T10:09:00.001-07:00

Hey guys,

Here are my picks for the Sports Betting Challenge with the guys on LifeFish, which y'all should check out,

Third weekend picks:

23.07k on Boise St (-40.5) @ SJSt to win 21.76k (-106)
10.5k on Idaho (-1.5) @ LaTech to win 10k (-105)
10.2k on Wisconsin (+3.5) vs Ohio St to win 10k (-102)
10.5k on Auburn (-3.5) vs Arkansas to win 10k (-105)

NFL

10.1k on Detroit (+10) @ NYG to win 10k (-101)
10.7k on Seattle (+6) @ CHI to win 10k (-107)
10.6k on Oakland (+6.5) @ SF to win 10k (-106)

Total: 85.67k to win 81.76k

and if anybody who reads this looks at sports betting, poker, or the stock market with any seriousness, you should go check out colmsum's amazing blog. I've been reading for a couple years now and he's the best sports bettor I've ever seen. All he posts are sports picks, stocks picks, and the occasional SICK hand from anywhere from 200NL to 1000NL heads up on FTP.

...So I unashamedly stole a lot of his picks this week, haha

NFL Week 6 Suicide Pick

2010-10-13T14:42:00.000-07:00

Cousin Sal on the BS Report podcast: "Suicide pools that are still alive get kind of a freebie this week."

Yeah, it's pretty clearly Pittsburgh + Ben at home off a bye vs Cleveland. If they lose (and NEVER forget that they can), then there's not much that could be done about it.

I busted the little pool on New Orleans, but week 5 in one pool and still alive in week 6 (the BIG pool, 13 left!) is an accomplishment to be proud of!

Unfortunately that means I get another year of listening to insufferable Jared, since that's 2 in a row for him, but whatever, I got him into the big one also and he busted it Week 1 on Dallas :P

To keep my streak of different picks alive, I'll take Chicago vs Seattle in the little one, since Cutler will be back and Seattle might suck on the road, even though they're off a bye too. I still feel ok about that, but markedly less so than Pitt vs Cle.

NYG at home vs Detroit seems like a very solid pick as well, but they're unavailable to me in both pools.

Poker-wise, feel like I'm getting my head on straight and playing a little better. I looked at the numbers and some things jumped out at me, so I'm doing what I can to correct them. It's a constant game of adjusting and re-adjusting, and you're never done learning. We're just sticking to the grind and keeping at it, with a professional approach and mindset.

Ran better today, not really playing better though

2010-10-12T14:48:00.001-07:00

Now I'm getting to that -LiveEV version of tilt where I sarcastically expect the worst every time I get raised... and then pay it off anyway. I played today, played a lot, and ran better than I should have, but I'm gonna dedicate this post to how many hands I played real bad, to remind myself that I'm not doing myself any favors if I'm not playing well.

1) HU vs Livity. Livity's really good, and I even made it a point not to play good regs HU today because I haven't felt very sharp the last few days. I quit cb4mvp, JimboNYY, and Marshall today, but didn't quit Livity for some reason. Anyway, the hand:

Raise 9c7c on the button, flop Kc Qc 5h, he check/calls the standard c-bet. Turn a flush card of little, he checks, I bet big, he check/raises big?!?!? I stopped to think about that. Would he c/c the nut flush draw, or any flush draw, on the flop? That doesn't seem like him, he's been known to play draws aggressively, and I have seen him c/r draws OOP. Anyway, I make the plan to call and ship over a good river. I called, the river was a little brick, he bet $30something, I shipped, and got shown the nuts. Cooler no matter what, but I could have saved myself $50 by just calling the river.

He then rat-holed me a short while later, still HU, which pissed me off and made me lose some respect for him. Such a soul-less predatory game this is sometimes. But with the way I've been playing lately, he probably did me a favor there.

2) I forget who, but some reg raises CO, I flat BTN with 88, fold, fold. Comes down A-A-5, he bets. I don't believe him, so I call. Turn is a 6 putting a 2nd flush draw out, he bets 75% of pot. I think a lot of his range here is either the front door or backdoor flush draws, so I call again. River is an 8, and he triples. I snap-ship, even though my hand is now only a bluffcatcher when he's never bluffing at this point, and he shows me A6. Again, cost myself about $50 by shipping a 2nd-place hand on the river. Fold flop, fold turn, call > ship river.

3) I open AKs 3x from MP, two LP calls, and the reg Jo Medici squeezes to $15. He 3-bet me at some point in the last week and I folded, so clearly we have history and he has nothing here. I didn't wanna 4-bet (4b or fold spot) so I called. It came down 8-5-2 with my flush draw. He checks, I bet, he ships, I snap. He had KK, but I Greenstein'ed him and won. Equity-wise it was only 53/47 his way, but I came away from the hand feeling dirty.

4) Folds to the 60/0/0.8 whale on the button, who does what stations do best and limps his button. I tap the table in the BB with T7o, flop comes 7-7-2. I bet $2 at $2 + change, he calls. The turn is a 4, he's a huge station, and I have a strong hand, so I wanna get stacks in, and I make a weird overbet, $26 at $6.

fish clicks it back.

wtf

Whatever bro, I have trips, fu I ship, even though all the boats beat me and lots of 7's have me kicked. Fish giddily calls with the 74o. I managed to get $2 in good and $98 in bad against a gigantic moron. Let's count the things I did wrong in that hand: go broke in a limped pot, and pay off when a super passive player raises, spew, spew, spew.

So basically I'm playing this weird mixture: I'm only playing aggressively if I'm spewing, and playing much more passive than I should be at all other times.

But it was my turn today for AIEV to come back around, so I won today anyways.

And there were innumerable other spots where I paid off river bets with bad hands. This is why my W$SD% is way way off, and this is why I'm down a ton in blue line the last week or so.

But tomorrow's a new day! I'm gonna work on making DISCIPLINED folds.

I should just ask myself, at every decision on every street, "What would vini do here?" He'd fold most of the time, and if he's not folding, he'd be getting it in good.

So that's what I'm gonna do tomorrow.

OMFG

2010-10-11T15:30:00.000-07:00

I have a 6 buyin stoploss because I got sick of losing $1k in a day.

That's ok, says Stars, we'll just do it to you in 2 days now.

This time I think I played bad more than I ran bad. At least 2 of those buyins were straight up spew.

Not that there wasn't run-bad as well, though. Squeeze JJ IP, fish calls, I c-bet the Q-high flop and he check/shoves. Make the thin call ... well why WOULDN'T you turn a set of 6's, sir. That last hand was JJ > KK in a 4-bet pot on a T-high flop, and brought on the quit.

Now down money on the month, after starting up $2500+

Gonna go hit the gym now for the first time in forever.

Stoploss FTL

2010-10-11T11:02:00.000-07:00

From last week:

"Historically, right about now is where I plunge into about a 25 buyin downswing of humble pie. But even if that happens, and I know this doesn't make sense, but I feel like I've made peace with how I understand variance. These past few sessions, I've felt much more focused, confident and balanced in my approach, and it's paying off so far."

...LOL.

That last +$100 pot was me boxing my flip with Gadolparah in the uNL flipawment challenge, so that doesn't count because I have to flip it at 200 next week. I warned him before we flipped that I was wayyyyyyyyyyyy due.

...downswing now at 20 BI and counting, almost back to even on what was starting to be a very promising month.

But... I REALLY did believe in that rah-rah stuff when I posted it the first time! And I am emotionally ok (since I did quit when that happened yesterday, and slept on it).

I closed cash tables right after that happened and said ok, just gonna stick to the tournaments that I'm in and we'll call that a day. Cashed the 5r and the 10r for around $150ish combined, so that was cool I guess, excepting the flips (vs a 40/11) or 60/40's I lost to get knocked out, obv, but whatever. LOL donkaments.

Nobody cares how bad you think you run, the site doesn't owe you anything, etc etc etc

Sorry for bad beat rants, but sometimes this blog is more for me than it is for the readers, haha

Tough slate in NFL suicide picks this week

2010-10-08T14:04:00.001-07:00

With byes, and lots of good teams picked already, this suddenly just got real.

All 4 winless teams are at home.

Don't forget how well teams play the week off a bye, with an extra week to rest and prepare.

I see no games I could feel even remotely good about, so it's going to be about which games seem the least-bad. Let's start with the winless teams:

St. Louis at Detroit: Two in a row, St. Louis? Really? But... rookie QB on the road. I don't even know which team I'd pick, if I had to pick one at gunpoint. I'd much rather pick a tough matchup with two good teams instead of one with two bad teams, because you never know WHAT you're going to get with two bad teams. Stay away.

Philly at San Francisco: I think I like SF's side more than Philly's side in this game. Surely they can't be THIS bad, right? They looked better against my beloved Falcons, for 1.5 quarters, anyway. Unless you want to take Kolb on the road vs SF's (good?) defense. But come on, are you REALLY gonna pick an 0-4 team in a suicide pool!?

Chicago at Carolina: Yes, Steve Smith is out so it's going to be a whole lot of rookies at skill positions for Carolina. Yes, Peppers will get up for this one. And yes the Bears want to make amends for last week. But no Jay Cutler.

Jacksonville at Buffalo: Of all the winless teams' matchups, I like Jacksonville the best for suicide purposes. The biggest edge for Jacksonville in this for me is their D-line against Buffalo's truly abysmal O-line. Still, let-down potential for Jax after they beat Indy on a 59-yard FG, Buffalo at home, surely they're due, and parity-variance is like that ... oy vey

Atlanta at Cleveland: Cleveland's not as bad as we think, and we are 2 freaky endings away from being 1-3. Also, Cleveland has a pretty good record against us in recent history, which I remember.

San Diego at Oakland: No Darren McFadden, so that makes me like SD some. But Rivers didn't exactly look composed the last time I saw him on the road on TV, in Kansas City. Road game, and you can NEVER take divisional games for granted.

Green Bay at Washington: The Packers don't look like an unstoppable juggernaut now that they don't have a running game anymore, and I already picked GB anyway.

Kansas City at Indy: not touching this game with a 10-foot pole. I've written enough about Jamaal Charles here, so I might as well go on record and say I think he's going to have a MONSTER game because the Colts can't tackle anybody in space. KC coming off a bye and having heard on tv for 2 straight weeks "Hey did ya know the Chiefs are undefeated? Lolz!" But against Peyton Manning, 250 yards from scrimmage and 3 TD's for Charles might not even be enough anyway. Stay WAY the hell away from this one. But I AM taking KC's moneyline at +277 in my play money sports betting challenge.

New Orleans at Arizona: Already picked the Saints in the big league, but looks like I'll go with New Orleans in the little one. Even if the Saints might not be as good as we think. I'll take the reigning Super Bowl MVP quarterback over an undrafted Mormon QB making his NFL debut. As I laugh at that joke, then I remember that BYU actually HAS produced some good QB's (Steve Young). There are misses there too, though (Ty Detmer). Guess we'll see when we kick off the Max Hall era on Sunday. I'm sure Greg Williams (NOR's DC) will take it easy on the little guy and not blitz him too much.

All the other games look way too close to call either way.

So for the big league, it's between Jacksonville at Buffalo, and San Diego at Oakland. I *guess* I think San Diego is a better team than Jacksonville, but I'm positive Buffalo is worse than Oakland, and I have them firmly entrenched at number 32 in my NFL power rankings. The biggest thing for me is that Buffalo's most glaring weakness (worst NFL O-line) plays into what I think is Jacksonville's greatest strength (monstrous D-line and front-7, which should evolve into a good pass rush one of these days).

So I'm gonna go with Jacksonville in the big one, and New Orleans in the little one... and pass on San Diego, though they're my next best-bet. SD is the number 2 most popular pick this week (Indy being 1), so this could be the doomswitch weekend for everybody else if Jax can pull this off for me! And we haven't had that one game (or that one week) that KILLS the suicide-picking field, yet.

Good luck to you this weekend! We might all need it.

Very Solid Start to October

2010-10-06T16:27:00.000-07:00

No graph, because just making this post is probably bad enough, but,

Running great, playing well most of the time, and putting in a ton of hands. I haven't yet hit my 6 buy-in session stop-loss this month, but I did quit one session down 4 buyins and another down 5 buyins, all of my own free will. Made it back later and felt much better about myself for it.

Historically, right about now is where I plunge into about a 25 buyin downswing of humble pie. But even if that happens, and I know this doesn't make sense, but I feel like I've made peace with how I understand variance. These past few sessions, I've felt much more focused, confident and balanced in my approach, and it's paying off so far.

And I'm only a couple days away from the $4,000 bonus for 250k FPP's, which, effective October 1st, is no longer a bonus that requires 28k VPP's to clear; it's an instant cash credit now!

...Which makes me feel really dumb when I mentally count up all the Sunday Millions and WCOOP and SCOOP events full of broken dreams. FPP's are real money and serious business, and the day I instantly get my $4k bonus, maybe I'll start seeing it that way.

Through 6 days on the month, I've played 20k hands! I think I'll actually hit my hands goal for once, but with the way I'm feeling now, I wanna try to play over 100k hands this month!

September Recap/October Goals

2010-09-30T20:58:00.001-07:00

It worked out to about 66% NL100 USD/Euro, and 34% NL25 USD/Euro.

My blue line sucked so bad because I get really spewy preflop when I tilt, and there was way too much of that this month, interspersed between some occasional good play.

I also finished September about a grand under EV, which may have been what caused a fair amount of that tilt. But who's counting.

I was pleased with the volume, I actually almost made 75k hands for once! September was good for 21k VPP's, which puts me at 146k on the year. I need a little less than 20k VPP's in October, November, and December to put me at the 200k milestone.

So yeah, for October, we're going to skip the tilt and bad play, and only play my very best.

Goals for October:

[ ] Play 75k+ hands
[ ] Make $5k+
[ ] Win Money At Showdown
[ ] Don't 4b/call 77 for 100bb preflop vs 14/11's
[ ] STRICT 6-buyin session stop/loss. If I lose 6 buyins, I HAVE to close everything and go do something else for at least 30 minutes.

Swings...

2010-09-25T02:19:00.000-07:00

Had ANOTHER -12 buyin swing, and just made it all back and then some tonight. The day I lost it all, I was definitely tilting. I tend to notice that when I have awful days like that, I'm just spewing to regs, and when I have heater days, I don't mess with regs much and make it all from randoms and fish.

80% of your results come from the top 20% worst opponents, something like that.

And there's probably a lesson here about table selection, game selection, quit when you're tilting, and stick to stop losses.

I've written about stuff like that in this space multiple times... now my thick-skulled self just needs to apply it all!

Suicide football picks: Very straightforward slate this week. I'm taking New England over Buffalo in the big pool, and Baltimore over Cleveland in the little pool. I feel as good as I can feel about any suicide pick with these two.

One of these days I'll learn how to quit...

2010-09-20T21:16:00.000-07:00

Hey guys,

The good news is I set a new personal best for hands in a day, which WAS in fact one of my stated objectives before I sat down to start playing today. So it was a pretty good day. Even Greg hit me up out of the blue and was generally pleasant, which made me wonder if he was feeling ok.

The bad news... eh, it could have gone better than it did:

I think I played fairly well for the most part. Made a couple big folds, played several hands in exactly the best way to get the most money vs. the hands my opponents had.

I did battle with a good amount of regs, and felt that my insticts and reads were sharp for the most part.

But I definitely lost focus towards the end, and was probably tilting a bit from some lame, gross, but standard setups that I'm used to by now.

There are two regs that will start multiple tables with me that are TERRIBLE, and I chatted pleasantly with one in Spanish for a while (he's one of the Spanish aggro-tard regs). He seemed surprised that I took the effort to talk to him in Spanish, and came away with a favorable opinion of me. I hope it doesn't dampen his competitive spirit for giving me HU action in the future.

I played a good amount of HU with Marshall (currently reigning atop Stars NL100 UGL leaderboard for September). He's definitely very solid and very good, but I felt I acquired a pretty good grasp for how wide his ranges were, and what he would or would not stack off with. Over the day we played 5 all-in pots: I got it in bad once, good 3 times, and dead once (lol snappity-snapping me emptying the clip on a triple barrel with 2nd pair in a 3-bet pot). Unfortunately, I lost all 5 all-ins. Don't mess with people who are running good!

Getting started into my session, the site was dialing up all kinds of gin turns and rivers for me, I was semibluffing in good spots, and I even picked up a few nice pots with air and some timely aggressive river moves.

But once the doomswitch pendulum swung the other way, along with my EV, It'd be wrong of me to say I was playing with 100% optimal focus. I haven't slept since yesterday... and I HATE playing when I'm tired, but I really wanted to put in a ton of hands today.

So yeah, FPP-pro4Lyfe today, but I'm pleased with the effort ... and while obviously not satisfied with the results, I have room in my poker-playing soul for taking solace in the satisfaction of putting in a workmanlike day, and with most of the decisions I made.

Once it started going worse, I did start to play worse, though I don't think I was too tilted. I did spew off at least 3 buyins, one to Marshall, one to Vini, and one to Jimbo, but like I said other than that I feel like I played very well, aned I'm ok with that.

So, we're going to stay positive and optimistic and just do it again tomorrow!

But next time, quit once we have played a respectable quota of hands for the day, dumbass!

Back in the saddle at 100!

2010-09-19T08:50:00.001-07:00

...Thanks to extraordinarily generous and favorable staking terms for me from my buddy "The Notorious N.I.T."

The rebuilding grind at 25 was going along just peachy, but the lack of VPP's was enough to put me in jeopardy of not making the 200k milestone.

I was actually approached by nati and gutter also about staking + coaching. I was interested, but they wanted to do 100k hands minimum, which would include coaching. Not that they aren't unstoppable beasts at 100, because they are, and not that I couldn't use the coaching, because I probably could, AND not that their coaching wouldn't have been worth it, because I'm positive it is,

But I just didn't want to do anything that would tie up half my income for that long.

Enter The Notorious N.I.T. with a very generous, simple, short-term deal to get me back in action at 100 until I'm on my feet again. Instead of doing it by hands, he lent me $1500, and I'm gonna ship back 1/2 the profits of what I make until I've shipped him back $2k. So he gets 33% interest on a loan that'll hopefully only take a couple weeks, and I get back to 100 without having to grind my way back up.

I was probably only a week or two away from being rolled for 100 on my own, but that's another week or two of 0.11 VPP/hand instead of 0.35. And there aren't that many weeks left in 2010.

So here's how it's gone so far:

lol swongs

Getting AA cracked by the same guy twice in one orbit on deep tables for 250bb each time sure did suck a big one.

But the last 1200 hands or so were pretty fun :)

That God-mode came just in the nick of time, because lemme tell ya, being $1100+ in makeup to a $1500 stake, on your word, is not a good feeling.

So I'm gonna take a little nap now, because I've been playing through the sunrise ever since I got home from DJ'ing last night.

And after that, I'm gonna skip all this variance BS and just make us some money!

Weekly Football Content Dump

2010-09-18T12:20:00.001-07:00

Hey guys,

Gonna try to put something up every week about football (college and/or pro) during the regular season.

1) Instant reaction from the UGA/Arkansas game: meh, there's reasons for optimism.

We weren't going to compete in the SEC with a freshman QB this year, plus the first year with a new defensive scheme. The team, and most importantly the freshman QB Murray, showed some progress in a week, and most importantly, heart, in the game today.

So now that we have no hope of contention in the SEC, there's no more pressure, and we can relax and watch the young QB develop. I'd still like to beat Florida, Auburn, and Tech, prioritized in that order for me, and even if we only win 2 of those 3 games, I'll be ecstatic.

If we don't get to bowl eligibility, then perhaps the SEC learning curve for 1st year quarterbacks is steeper than I gave it credit. But if we get 7-8 wins, a meh bowl game, and victories over the bigger rivals, then it can be nothing other than an overwhelmingly positive year.

The UGA/Tennessee game will be the Rebuilding Bowl. That'll be another measuring stick game for us, and a good snapshot of where our two programs are heading.

2) Pro football: Hope the Falcons offense looks better this week. I suspect we'll have better success on the ground vs Arizona's front 7 than we did vs Pittsburgh's front 7. I'm not going to harp on OC Mike Mularkey's conservative play-calling as much as some others in the blogosphere have, but I would like to see them dial up some more shots downfield with Roddy. That's what he's there for, he's not a possession/dumpoff/checkdown/curls'n'outs guy like how we used him last week. Perhaps that was just respect for a healthy Polamalu. I guess we'll see.

3) Suicide pick: I really wanted to pick different teams in my two pools, but I see no good pick other than Green Bay over Buffalo at home. I'm really on pins and needles about it, because it looks soooooooooooooo obvious... Everyone's taking Green Bay, Ryan Grant is out for the year, etc. I know it isn't rational, but I firmly believe that "The Prevailing National Opinion" has a causal effect on what happens on the field.

Let's also not forget I busted my suicide pool LAST year by taking Green Bay at home vs Cincinnati (ALSO eerily in week 2).

The next-biggest home favorites by the point spread are Dallas, and San Diego, who both lost last week and look wildly overrated to me. I don't know what to make of Chicago yet (Dallas' opponent), and I'm somewhat more bullish on Jacksonville than the prevailing general opinion. I really like what they did with their front 7 in the offseason, though I won't make claims just yet as to exactly how frisky they'll be this year. Either way, I wouldn't feel great with EITHER of those picks.

So I'm going with Green Bay in both pools. And if they lose, then I'm never picking the same pick twice again, ever.

Just added blogging statistics!

2010-09-13T14:58:00.001-07:00

^^Click the comic to get the punch-line 4th panel, I suck at resizing

I'd just assumed that anyone who reads this would have heard of DoubleFly's great blog, but if you haven't, go check it out. He's a small/mid stakes reg over on FTP and has one of the better, frequently updated, and visually aesthetic blogs out there.

Speaking of, I need to do a blogroll shout-out post, there's tons of great blogs that I read that ought to be shared.

Anyway, MUCH thanks for DoubleFly's latest blog post basically explaining to idiots like me how to track your blog numbers and statistics. I added a counter (at the bottom of the column on the right), as well as a public link to a summary of my statistics. I made my first post on this site in July of 2009 (over a year, WOW!), but the counter will only be tracking from today forward, obv.

I just think this stuff is all so really neat! Can't wait to look at how the graph will change once I win the World Series of Poker Main Event, then this blog will become my medium for addressing the world

and I'll be too cool to blog sometimes

but I'll still remember and <3 all my readers from the little times now, haha

...And as always, sound off in the comments if you have any suggestions or feedback on the type of content I make around here.

I hate making rage-quits

2010-09-12T01:01:00.000-07:00

Played too many hands again. I know for a fact I am never even playing 85% of optimal once I get past 2500 hands.

I guess making the rage-quit is better than to continue rage-playing,

it just puts me in such a foul mood for the rest of the day.

<3 the new Stars update "insta-sit out all tables and close" option

It's in the ground, I'm going to re-dedicate myself to the proper playing mindset. So here's to a full day of tourneys, poker, and NFL football when I wake up tomorrow!

Bullet Point Blogging

2010-09-09T01:41:00.000-07:00

- UGA looked good, even though I know it was just Louisiana-Lafayette. Huuuuuuuuuuge SEC East showdown with The Palmetto State Poultry this weekend, the last bajillion contests have been decided by less than 1 score, and I expect this to be no different. Sad-Uga-face on a bag of ice about A.J. Green.

- The most grossly misplayed betting street, out of the 4 choices, by regs and fish alike, even more than preflop, is by far the turn.

- I'm utterly amazing at both fantasy football and fantasy baseball, more on that later.

- Can't wait to see how the Falcons look on Sunday, especially the defense, especially the linebackers and d-line.

- My college Top 5: 1) Ohio St, 2) Alabama, 3) Boise St, 4) Oregon, 5) no clue, I talk myself into and out of about 7 teams, but I like my top 4. I'm reserving judgment on the Big 12 until I see more (Oklahoma vs FSU!!) Chip says my top 3, plus Nebraska goes undefeated this year ... I think he's a tad crazy and Nebraska hasn't shown me anything on offense yet, but we'll see.

- Not that I'm a betting man, but the Saints are definitely winning Thursday night. I dunno what the line is or who will cover, *wink!*, but don't talk yourself into a revenge game for the Vikings, the reigning champs ALWAYS win after they raise the banner at home.

- My suicide pick in the big pool is New York Giants at home vs. Carolina, and in the little pool it's Tennessee at home vs Oakland... here's hoping I can make it past week 2 in both this year

- Lotttttttta road favorites this week in the NFL. I know it takes Vegas a couple weeks to get it right, but I'd be treading very carefully if I were betting this weekend.

I just wanted a sandwich...

2010-09-05T14:07:00.001-07:00

So I usually to have lunch with my parents on Sunday afternoon before I retire to the bat-cave for 8 hours (hopefully more like 12)

Anyway I woke up with only 15 minutes left of late registration for the first WCOOP, so I signed in and started playing, and asked my Mom to bring me a sandwich.

She walks in with the bag and the drink, and immediately proceeds to straight HOSE me and the computer with 44 ounces of Dr. Pepper.

...in the ONE spot I have to sit in all day

the keys and the mouse as I type this are already getting sticky.

...

...

I made her fold my laundry.

Avatar, Location, and Screen Name Tells

2010-09-04T14:54:00.001-07:00

Been running quite hot at 25 this past week, don't wanna jinx it so I won't talk about it too much. Just some thoughts I've been having from starting tables and what I immediately think of someone when they sit down.

Drooler Screen Name Insta-Tells:

- Having an exactly four-digit year in the name (magom1968, not as legendarily as well known a high-stakes fish as scout, but as thoroughly bum-hunted, has been CRUSHING 25/50 lately... hahaha! I figure someone who's down ~ 200k at online poker can probably afford it and has a sick life, so seeing that gives me hope for the game)

- All-caps screen name (with several notable exceptions, BlGGIESMALLS, SQUI5HIIFI5H, and others)

- Bronze or Silver Star displayed (obv)

Avatar Tells:

- A chump-looking dude posing as a couple with his frumpy girl: loose/passive terrible.

- A baby picture (overdone, but also loose/passive bad), notable exception that screwball rodjeur1984, who's also an exception for the 4 digit year thing... fk. but still...

- Fast cars, athletes, hot chicks, etc: aggro (usually spewy and bad)

Location Tells:

aggro Euro-tard WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALE: Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Nice, Oslo

passive/bad: (when coupled with an outdoorsy picture of the guy, presumably) medium-sized American cities e.g. Gary (IN), Des Moines (IO), Bend (OR), Ukiah (CA)

ALWAYS solid, never spewy, or bad, and ALWAYS has it: ANY CITY IN ESTONIA (srsly). Tallinn, Tartu, Rakvere, etc. Some are more nitty than straightforward or solid, but I can NEVER recall seeing an Estonian fish.

They also have these unnerving screen names that make sense phonetically in English, but ominously suggest no meaning whatsoever.

Some solid Estonian regs between NL25-NL100:

kotkis, mcfoldberg, varsakabi, amagan, metsapull, HrKalju, ... lots I'm forgetting. If there's ever 2 Estonians at one table, it's not a very good table.

August Recap/September Goals

2010-09-01T20:59:00.000-07:00

Had a pretty rough month, lost money, AND I lost my computer, which finally died, so no graph. I did finish with a little over 15k VPP's, so I probably missed my hands goal, but still a yeoman's effort. My old computer had been acting up pretty badly over the last few months, being real slow, and having time-out issues. It kept saying it was out of disk space on the C:/ and I cleaned it out multiple times, but it never got better. Then I must have accidentally deleted one of the programs HEM needs to run, because then it stopped working too.

I played HUD-less for a few days, lost some, didn't play well, and couldn't look at the numbers. Then to mix it up I did a dumb thing and dabbled in PLO again.

I should say I hate that game, now and forever. I keep getting tempted by it, seeing as how fishy it is. I think I have a pretty firm grasp of basic poker concepts and fundamentals, it shouldn't be this hard for me to beat this game. And then, ah, the variance. 55/45's, 60/40's, 65/35's on a good day, over and over and over again. You'll start playing and one day (one SESSION) very soon, you'll lose 15 of those in a row just because mathematics can be just that maddening.

I think the tilt-monster in me (which I normally have pretty steely control over) gets some sort of sick gratification from bombing the bet slider to the right over and over again. I'm a pot-mashing monkey, even in spots where it makes sense to c-bet less, I'm either going crazy and putting in multiple barrels, or passing.

Started at PLO 100. Won a grand, lost it to get back to even, lost a grand after that, made it back, and said "haha ok this is a bit much." Played at PLO50 the next day, and skipped the whole "winning" and "recovery" part and just lost somewhere around 1250-1500. HUD-less.

Then had to cash some out to pay bills this month, and all of a sudden I'm as close to busto as I've been in a while! So I got a new machine, put everything back on and got it set just right, and I'm doing a little bankroll recovery with all my old pals at NL25. It shouldn't take more than a week or two and I'll be shot-taking again into 100 and full-time as soon as it sticks.

And no 50 because I hate that limit and it's rigged. Not really, and it's not any trouble for me any more, but 100 isn't that much tougher than 50, and 25 is whipped cream so my hourly at 25 is probably better, before FPP's.

So no notable goals for September, just play good, grind, and get back to 100 asap

...And bink a WCOOP event, obv, I might take a swing at one or two with my FPP's.

First fantasy draft of the year!

2010-08-26T10:39:00.000-07:00

I had my first for-real fantasy draft last night, and for me, the 2010-2011 fantasy football season has now officially begun! I don't know how many teams I'll end up with, but I'm already in 5 money leagues. Now that I've started drafting, I'll be adding some free public leagues with internet rando's, hopefully with completely unique rosters, so that I can feel like I'll own "enough" guys that I like in some capacity.

Last night I drafted my team in Jared's league, so it's a tad exotic. Standard roster sizes (plus two IDP's), big play/big day bonuses, PPR, point per completion for QB's, and auction format.

That tweaks the settings to give me a very straightforward blueprint for my draft:

a) Absolutely must acquire a top 4 QB
b) Ray Rice is at least as good as Chris Johnson
c) It tweaks the value of some receivers

With that in mind, I was fairly pleased with how the top of the draft shook out, initially. Lots of people (either for amusement or for some hare-brained strategy) nominated a bunch of defensive players, kickers, and defenses early to see if anyone got into bidding wars over players like Jon Beason, lol. The first overall pick was K Nate Kaeding, who amazingly went for $1. I stayed out of that, and for the most part, only nominated high dollar players that I DIDN'T want, and tried to drive up their prices. Throughout the whole thing, I was targetting Ray Rice.

Thankfully, between all the goofy cheap players and the top players I didn't want, Ray Rice stayed on the board for a while, which is GOOD because you want the guys that you're targetting to go AFTER a few people blow money like drunken sailors on other high-dollar picks.

Chris Johnson went for $66, Adrian Peterson went for $70 (lol Chip), and MJD went for $63. When Rice was nominated for $1, I immediately went to $50, and was prepared to spend more than the $70 that AP went for. I was a little worried, since he was the last of the elite tier, and sometimes people get into panic-bidding wars. But I was extremely pleased to get him for $59.

Ditto for Aaron Rodgers, whom I got for $41. Brees went for $48 (also to Chip), but Peyton went for $36, and Brady and Romo were steals comparably, at $29 and $22. I'm a little annoyed that I paid over market, but in a league where TD's are 5 points, plus bonuses for 300 and 400 yard days, PLUS a point per completion and -1 per incompletion, having an elite QB is quite simply a NECESSARILY high priority, so I'm unconcerned.

I got stuck price-enforcing on wide receivers, and didn't get the ones I initially wanted. Reggie Wayne's recommended value is $33 but I was left holding the bag at $31, and I got Michael Crabtree at his ADP $14, but I thought people would take him over market. I'm not too concerned about it, but it annoyed me because I couldn't get involved in the bidding for WR's I really wanted, like Steve Smith (NYG) or Wes Welker. I think I'm ok at WR depth, I got Malcolm Floyd and Derrick Mason, who are completely serviceable WR3's and -4's. There's a fair amount of value left on the wire so I'm not concerned about the state of my WR corps.

I also got Jamaal Charles for fairly good value, his ADP of $22.

What I like about my team is that I came into the draft with priorities, and I addressed them. I got an elite, PASS-CATCHING back, a top-3 QB, and as sure a thing as it gets at WR, if not a PPR-monster like Smith or Welker.

What I didn't like about my draft is that I'm mildly concerned about my RB depth. Readers of this blog know that "adequate RB depth plus upside" is the one, STANDING, first, last, and ONLY priority I have in every fantasy draft I enter. I'm a bit top heavy, talent wise, and looking back I would have preferred if I saved for a bid on another cheap-ish RB3-4. Michael Bush went for $4, I could have thrown an Abe Lincoln on that. My 7 RB's are Rice, Charles, Cadillac, Hightower, Sproles, Washington, and a McGahee handcuff for Rice.

I think I paid the most for an IDP, got in a small bidding war for Patrick Willis, and I got him for $5. But if I'm gonna overspend on an IDP, I'd only do it on the guy who is FOR SURE not going to be worse than top 5 at the end of the year. To balance I made sure my other IDP was a $1 guy who I like, and I got LB/DE Kamerion Wimbley, who looks good in his new Oakland threads this year in preseason. 4 sacks in one preseason half, they're turning him loose this year.

Everybody has a winner on draft day, but I like how this team looks. I have a fair amount of risk invested in Jamaal Charles truly being a top-15 fantasy player, but if he is like I think he is, then I easily have a top-2 or 3 team.

The team name is "P-Willie's Comin'."

--EDIT-- A free, public, 10-team standard ESPN league I just drafted:

Peyton Manning: Gr8st All Time

QB Peyton Manning
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
RB Ryan Grant
RB/WR Felix Jones
WR Steve Smith (NYG)
WR Dwayne Bowe
TE Chris Cooley
D/ST Bengals
K Mason Crosby

RB Arian Foster
WR Bernard Berrian
RB Michael Bush
RB Chester Taylor
WR Nate Burleson
WR Kenny Britt
WR Dexter McCluster (just missed getting backup RB Rashad Jennings for JAX)

Broke my foot

2010-08-22T16:14:00.000-07:00

...by being a dumbass Saturday night. There are 3 small steps with a security guy who's a buddy of mine down to the patio. I jumped, attempted to give Adam a mid-air high five, AND do an irish-jig heel tap simultaneously in midair. Everything went great except the landing.

And after a brief trip to the ER to get X-rays, immobilized in a splint, and percocet (wheeeeeee), I'm on crutches, can't drive, and cooped up in la casa.

Fantasy Football: Identifying Fat Draft Value

2010-08-16T07:32:00.000-07:00

In the previous fantasy football installment, I talked about some first impressions from my mock drafting, and identified the guys you want in murky backfield situations. In this installment, I'd like to clarify some RB tandems, and identify which players have the best value to CLEARLY outperform their average draft position.

Running Backs

Jamaal Charles: Either you believe he has the upside to be a top-15 fantasy player, or you don't. I do, and he's consistently dropping into the late 3rd/early 4th. I won't always be taking him with my 2nd or 3rd round pick, but I think that's what he'll provide. I'd rather have him than Shonn Greene, Rashard Mendenhall, and maybe Cedric Benson (but I WOULD rather have Ryan Grant, or several receivers, over Charles).

Jerome Harrison is now the back you want in Cleveland, with Montario Hardesty missing most of the preseason with an injury. It remains to be seen what their roles will be when both are healthy, but for now Harrison has the best fantasy prospects. I expect RB3 or RB4 production, with RB2 upside, at a RB5-6 price.

Jahvid Best is clearly a better draft pick than CJ Spiller, and is going later. Kevin Smith will likely miss some or all of this year, and Detroit looks to be in a lot of 60-70 total-points games.

Stock Watch: Up

Ryan Matthews had a strong preseason debut, 9 car, 50 yds, TD, 2 rec, 11 yds.

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will be running behind at least a top-3 OT tandem.

Stock Watch: Down

Knowshon Moreno is currently on the mend, Clady's out, and Tebow shenanigans aside, I think Denver is a candidate for a precipitous implosion kind of season.

Fred Jackson is hurt, and Buffalo has almost definitely the worst OT tandem and an awful line, so Lynch and Spiller don't look great either.

Quarterbacks

Eli Manning has BY FAR the best ratio of "reasonably guaranteed numbers" for "draft price," out of all positions. QB's that will definitely have better years than Eli: Peyton, Rodgers, Brees, Romo, A Healthy Schaub (not gtd), and maybe Brady, Rivers, or Flacco, and that's it. He had the quietest 4,000-yard year for a ring-bearing QB that I can recall. He's a vastly superior value-QB option than Flacco, Rivers, Ryan, McNabb or Roethlisberger, and slips into the 8th-9th round. I think he's a lock to be not worse than the 6th or 7th-best QB.

Matt Ryan, expectations aside (and they have been lofty), has proceeded very nicely along his developmental curve, and is 20-10 as a starter. I'd set the expectations for this year to be a floor of 3500 yards and 25TD's, and I'll take the under on... 16 picks. I think he's an even money bet to end up the 7th-10th best QB on the year.

Stock Watch: Down

Alex Smith threw no TD's and a pick in his preseason debut.

Jay Cutler is 24-29 as a starter.

Hunch...

Seneca Wallace is the QB with the most fantasy points at the end of the year in Cleveland. He was Holmgren's guy, he's taking the reins of the rebuilding project, and Mangini's defense will be better this year, but he still isn't even worth drafting even in the deepest of leagues.

Wide Receivers

Steve Smith (NYG) is the best WR named Steve Smith, and is a legit top-5 WR1 in PPR leagues. The Carolina version goes in the 3rd/4th, and the New York version goes in the 4th/5th, and will easily put up 2nd/3rd round numbers if he catches 100 balls again.

Roddy White: consistency matters with top picks, and White has caught 81-88 balls for 3 straight seasons.

Most cagey veterans are better than even money for 1,000 yards

Derrick Mason has had a career a lot closer to Marvin Harrison or Torry Holt than you might think. 8 seasons, 1,000+ yards, for realz.

Donald Driver had 2 offseason arthroscopic knee operations, but the dude gets red zone looks and is a go-to guy on 3rd down. He knows his role and shows up to do his job every single week, which is more than can be said of some NFL WR's.

Hines Ward will get his numbers.

All will be serviceable WR2's available at WR3 prices.

A slightly better week

2010-08-16T03:38:00.000-07:00

...At least in my approach. I'm still not seeming to find the time to put the hands in at the level that I want, but the first rule about volume in poker is that quality > quantity. I haven't strictly stuck to the curfew I imposed for myself, but I have been playing better if I do play in vampire hours.

It was another uneventful tournament Sunday. When I woke up and looked at the clock it said 6 pm, so I missed the million, the 4pm 11r, the quarter million, and the 2:15 $3r, which in my opinion are the best-value tournaments of the week.

I played a few micro tournaments, and played the 8 p.m. $3r, which is still quite soft but it doesn't get as big as the 2:15 $3r. I really love the $3r, because it never ceases to AMAZE me how late in the tournament (up to and including the final table) that some absolutely CATASTROPHIC morons ... can amass a GIGANTIC stack ... at ANY stage of the tournament.

Spewed a little bit early in the rebuy period (which is not necessarily a bad thing for image, if you can keep it under 4-5 buyins), but then I made a comeback (AND got it by cruising through the guy I spewed off to, which is emotionally fulfilling). First hand out of the rebuy period, with an above average stack, I doubled again with AK > A3 on a AT8 flop in a 3-bet pot (tanked but eventually shipped the flop over a minraise of my flop c-bet), and saw myself with almost 40k in the 150/300 level. From there I steadily built up to 130k into the 600/1200 level, until disaster struck. I lost my next 3 all-ins, getting it in good twice and dead once, and I busted about 30 or 40 people off the bubble, and that was that.

I think I'm going to start setting weekly hand volume goals, from whenever I finish on Sunday to whenever I finish Sunday. This week we'll be shooting for 15k hands!

Meh start to August

2010-08-09T10:41:00.000-07:00

If I were to give myself a letter grade for my play this past week, I'd give myself at BEST a D+ or C-. I haven't been playing with any particular focus or concentration, and have been more than a little spewy preflop. I've been dabbling at NL100 heads up, with mixed results. I think if I play my best I can make good money at heads up, but if I'm not careful I get overly aggro, try to win every pot, and spewy. The graph is pretty funny, I'm up like +$3400 in 10k hands in red line, and down -$4400 in blue line.

I think the problem is I've been playing too much during vampire hours. Most nights I'm either DJ'ing or going out between the hours of, say, 8 p.m. and 3 a.m. That means if I want to play poker, the best digestible clumps of time to play are in the afternoon before work, or the graveyard shift after work through the dawn.

I think I play best right after I wake up and eat, but I don't always wake up in time (sadly) in the afternoon to play. It affects my approach. If I'm playing in the afternoon, during peak volume, I can keep the game really simple. The biggest pots I've ever won are always the most boring, straightforward hands anyway, (flop a huge draw, turn the nuts, river's still the nuts, yawn) ... just have to wait for them. It's a numbers game, there are enough fish out there, so just sit back and wait until my hole cards match the board cards better than anybody else's hole cards.

It shouldn't be any different in the pre-dawn hours. But whether I 3-bet ATs at 4:30 p.m. OR a.m., I seem more likely to get 100+ bb's in the middle preflop at 4:30 a.m. I get much more carried away in 3bet/4bet preflop wars, force multi-street bluffs, and make thin (spewy) call-downs.

I seem to take a much more professional approach during the afternoon, and a degen approach at night.

So I'm gonna try to stick to a poker curfew for myself. And try to improve life balance some, maybe even wake up before 3 every day this week.

Housekeeping

2010-08-02T14:00:00.001-07:00

If you subscribe in a reader, be sure to click through and check the main page out, I've spruced it up visually with some pictures and updated some things.

Also, the Asian bot malware army that invades blogspot's comments will be no more. They have a relationship with me. Sometimes they just write in nonsensical mandarin/canton script that reminds me of Mulan with the cricket hopping from the inkwell to the paper like a typewriter, and link to who-knows-how-evil malware. But lately they've been signing their links with cryptic, vaguely Confucian, Sun-Tzu-like epitaphs, such as "Subtlety is greater than force."

So now I have to approve of the comments before they're posted. Hopefully readers of this blog know not to click sketchy links, and the internet can be a wild and weird place.

Each time I tweak something those "make money with your blog and put ads in front of eyeballs!" banners and I'm tempted. I didn't start this thing to make money, and I find it tacky when recreational blogs start to look like a stock car.

...However, everybody DOES have a price. Does anybody know how I can even find out what my numbers are? Every other blog seems to know exactly how much traffic they get.

But for now this will stay just for fun, and as always, if you guys have suggestions, then sound off in the comments!

July Recap/August Goals

2010-07-31T02:56:00.001-07:00

^^See if you can spot the 600NL shot

Succeeded in 2 of my 3 recurring monthly goals for once, making 5k+ AND having a positive blue line!

Volume needs some work though, came up laughably short of 75k hands.

And, for all those lurkers that don't know my screen name ... I'm proud to say, at the last update I saw on PTR, I made 19th-most at NL100 on Stars this month! Pretty much the most exciting thing that's ever happened to my poker career, lol. I'm way prouder of that than even a 5-figure donkament score (though I'd take the latter right now, if I could choose, haha).

If PTR was tracking 25NL when I was putting good volume in there, I'm positive I would have won it and outlasted those 200k hand/mo asian nit-tards with better than 4x their winrates in 1/4th the hands, hahaha.

So, I got all my own cash game action now, I feel confident in my game at NL100, but there's lots of places to improve upon. I think I'm just gonna grind it out for a while and maybe splash around occasionally at 200, to get into the groove.

I'm also toying with the idea of buying tableninja and hope it improves my efficiency, I'm really struggling to get hands in lately. I hear the auto-timebank feature makes it pay for itself in a few sessions.

I'm scared of computers and don't use scripts, AHK's, or anything ... does anybody know how something like Stars Assistant compares to using table ninja?

...And am I being a stubborn technophobe moron who's leaving money on the table by not attempting to maximize my efficiency?

We'll see.

Same goals for next month!

75k hands
make 5k+
win money at showdown

Stake Successfully Concluded!

2010-07-29T01:37:00.000-07:00

I finished my 100k hands, actually wound up being 102k, and I have to say what an overwhelmingly positive experience coaching was. I don't wanna get into specifics, but I made an amount that's well within what might be expected of 100k hands with my winrate.

I shipped back the 2k initial stake and the last installment of 1/2 the profits, so my coach was pleased.

And I'm pleased as well! I think I definitely got the value out of coaching, but even more than that I'm happy with the relationship I've formed with my coach. If something ever happens, I can now always easily get a stake for NL100 and start over, no matter how crazy life circumstances might get.

I'll probably enter into another staking arrangement with my backer when I'm ready to move up! The flexibility and peace of mind it provides helps me to play better, also, I think. It's not just me trying to play good and win money, it's a matter of honor that I always play my very best, and I think that's good for motivation.

And my coach is going to continue to take some of my tournament action, which is a great deal for me if I want to play the Million every week.

I was so happy with how the stake went I took a little shot at NL600 to celebrate. Played a couple of chumps heads up to start some tables, BlGGIESMALLS and justforfunds (if you missed the irony, those are literally two of the best mid-stakes regs in the history of internet poker), and I actually made money! Biggie knew I was shot-taking and 3b/5b/called 6betshove with T8o once I 4bet JJ. I 4bet after I said I was shot-taking, and when he 5bet me I said "well great work dumbass, you just talked yourself into HAVING to stack off JJ preflop here!" but it went ok this time.

I probably won't try to move up to 200, but I might be easing in some more shot-taking there. Now that I have all my own action I can be a little more aggressive with bankroll management if I want to,

but the whole reason I'm NOT moving up to 200 on a stake (which I could probably get), is because my life circumstances aren't where I'd want to be, to take on swings at that level. I could very easily hit a rough patch and lose 5k+ in a few weeks.

That's not something I could afford to ride out right now.

The last thing justforfunds said to me was gg, gl, and keep your head on straight.

That's good advice for anyone considering gambling for the amount of money we're talking about here.

So I'm gonna hit the grind at 100, and stock my cupboard some more, armed with my newfound confidence! I sat with the best and I won, so hopefully I'll be back soon (:

Made a Final Table yesterday

2010-07-26T14:14:00.001-07:00

Nothing big, I got 4th in a $4 NLH tournament for a little over $600. First was $1600+.

After getting knocked out, there's always a little deflation if you didn't win the whole thing, even if you made the final table. But it's upsetting how ambivalent I was about the money. I mean... final table! Those are really rare, gotta be happy about making that!

First would have been nice. Even though 600/4 is a lot of tournament buyins, it's only 6 cash game buyins. And admittedly, a +6BI day is a great day, in the grand scheme of things, but it's almost doubly disappointing because I made a deep run in a tournament.

Whatever, guess it just goes to show how poker desensitizes you to money. That's a necessary skill to be a professional gambler, to be able to make decisions dispassionately. Being emotionless to money is not necessarily +Life EV, though. I find using that term describing this to be both ironic and funny!

I don't think I played particularly well at the final table, but I definitely ran GREAT to get there. I can think of at least 5 flips for my tournament life or effectively my tournament life, just once we were in the money, and I won them all. Busted QQ with my AK all in preflop at least 3 times off the top of my head. EZ game.

First hand of the final table, UTG+1 opens 2.5x, I flat 66 with a little more than 22 bb's from MP2. This is a marginal decision, and my coach thinks it might be a fold since I offer such an enticing re-jam spot to 5 people (that I can't really call). Anyway, the nitty CO also calls, and the flop comes A-8-6r. PFR bets a little less than half pot. I flat to try to keep CO in, and he quickly ships over and UTG+1 quickly calls. I say well my life really sucks if the nitty CO has 88, but I played it this way to turbo-call if they both ship it in, so I did. CO had AQ and UTG+1 had AJ and I won a 3 way all in where both opponents were nearly dead.

Even though the blinds were pretty high, the tournament ground to a halt with 5 people left. I made a ton of steals in too many obvious spots, and got played back at a fair bit. I made a major mis-step and got down to 10-15bb's 5 handed, which is a really dangerous area for stealing, because you should be steal-shoving more than raising small. I don't think I did that very effectively, the guy two to my left wasn't a great player by any means, but he had a pretty good read on me and played back at me a lot.

Thankfully someone else went broke to make me the shorty with 4 people, but I lost on a dumb, lame, stupid, yet standard spot: I got dealt two hole cards in the SB. I'm supposed to shove any two, if BB isn't braindead he knows he's supposed to call widely, etc. I had 62s and he had 77.

So yeah, it was fun, definitely going to be re-thinking my overall strategy when it's short-handed at the final table. There's lots I need to improve upon.

Hopefully I'll be making my way back to more final tables in the near future to sharpen my instincts!

And I'm almost (successfully!) finished with my cash game stake, I'll write up some thoughts about the experience later.

Some Fantasy Football First Impressions

2010-07-20T00:15:00.000-07:00

Hi guys,

I've done a little mock-drafting on ESPN ... it's still July so I'm not ready to throw myself into it yet, but I thought I'd take a quick refresher to get my feet wet again.

- The preseason rankings, especially ESPN's, are hilariously-lol. There's some situational stuff we can't possibly know right now that will be revealed in camp, so don't get too indoctrinated in draft values now, since lots can and will change

- Some people are ABSURDLY undervalued in what I'm seeing so far, but I expect the market will correct itself as we get closer

I'm all in on:

- CJ 1, MJD 2, Rice 3, imo,
Peyton Manning (in the 3rd/4th? Hello, where have you been the last decade?)
Jamaal Charles
DeSean Jackson
Knowshon Moreno (best O-line in NFL)
Green Bay's offense in general
Robert Meachem
lots more, to varying degrees

- Some guys I'm not sure I'm willing to pull the trigger on at current ADP:
Steven Jackson
Rashard Mendenhall (11th overall, really? Are we sure?)
Shonn Greene (extensive college + pro injury history, now he's the centerpiece)
Ryan Matthews (Why are we so sure he's better than Jacob Hester?)
Steve Smith CAR (I admit I have an irrational fear/hatred of him and he always proves me wrong

Tom Brady: I'm not giving up yet, but in the NFL, when it's over, it's over forever. The New England front-office manifesto seems fitting: "It's better to be wrong on a guy a year early than wrong on a guy a year late."

The guy (I think) you want (right now) in murky backfield situations:

Houston: Arian Foster (not B. Tate or S. Slaton)

Seattle: Justin Forsett (not J. Jones or L. Washington)

Buffalo: Fred Jackson (not CJ Spiller or M. Lynch)

Cleveland: Montario Hardesty (not J. Harrison, J. Davis, or P. Hillis)

Tampa Bay: Cadillac Williams (not D. Ward or E. Graham)

Oakland: Michael Bush (not D. McFadden, but I haven't given up yet)

Arizona: Beanie Wells (not T. Hightower, L. Stephens-Howling, or JJ Arrington)

It's MUCH closer in:

New Orleans: Pierre Thomas (though R. Bush will have value)

Indianapolis: Joseph Addai (though D. Brown's role is undefined at the moment)

Carolina: Deangelo Williams (by a hair over Jonathan Stewart, who knows)

Miami: Ronnie Brown (when healthy, if not then R. Williams)

Chicago: Matt Forte (but don't forget about C. Taylor)

Kansas City: Jamaal Charles (though T. Jones may vulture some close-in scores)

Two guaranteed, can't miss, no-doubt-about-it top-7 TE's available middle-late:

Visanthe Shiancoe

Greg Olson

And, to wrap it all up,

Two currently-never-drafted, zero risk/infinite reward instant super-duper-star home run hitters:

Josh Cribbs

Dexter McCluster

Hope y'all find these ramblings useful!

uFR Team Winrate Challenge Results

2010-07-18T21:34:00.001-07:00

The remaining blank scores are confirmed zeros, so here was the final tally for the winrate challenge prop I ran!

I ran like aids and kicked it off with a 34+ buyin downswing, grinded it ALL back, and posted an unimpressive score.

I'm definitely a little disappointed in all the incomplete/negative zeros that popped up. Oh well, I offered everyone on my team sweating and several took me up on it, so I feel like I was pretty involved.

Congrats to Da Animals!

Supernova!

2010-07-05T20:36:00.001-07:00

...woot.

Those 5 purdy red stars certainly look nice with the blacks, greens, and earthy tones in my avatar picture.

And the 1k milestone bonus sure is awful swell.

I'll probably be clearing the $4k bonus within a month or so of hitting the 200k milestone bonus, so that ($4k + $3,400) will be a swell Christmas present for myself indeed.

If I kill myself I could maaaaaaaaaybe make the 300k milestone ($3,600) this year, but I dunno, we'll see. It took me to July to get the first 100k so that might not be realistic, but if I'm beating 200 by then, who knows!